Tuesday, October 10, 2000
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Think Tank
This week we focus on a complete analysis of the
financial institutions industry
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Feeling the heat, but still not ready to give up 

 
Ask any player and he will tell you that there is no other way for the market but to come down. Volumes are dipping, but the outstanding positions are not. An indication that despite everything, nobody is willing to liquidate their positions.

Everybody is still hoping against hope that the market might spring a pleasant surprise. So far there has been no such indications. Market favourites have been unusually subdued in the run up to their quarterly numbers. There is an overwhelming sense of pessimism, but nobody wants to get out willingly.

If the Sensex has to touch the much talked about 3,800 levels, there has to be a forced weak bull unwinding. Reading between the lines, a section of the institutional players do not seem to share the HLL chairman's bullishness about the future of the company, even while admitting a slowdown. Close to about half a million shares are reported to have been dumped yesterday by a foreign fund, whose identity is yet to be confirmed.

The sales on the eve of the third quarter numbers seem to indicate that few players are expecting any surprise in earning numbers. The fortunes of the scrip has been on a downswing of late, with even the most eminent individual value investor too gradually moving out of the stock.

Sell on expectations
Most funds have now decided to follow the policy of booking profits in the run up to the quarterly numbers. A case in point is Infosys Technologies, which remained subdued on the eve of its Q2 numbers. Close to 50,000 shares are reported to have dumped yesterday with the Prudent investor and Coat Hari Mutual fund reported to be among the sellers.

When it comes to a widely held stock like Infosys, one can be reasonably sure that not many prospective buyers would wait till the formal announcement of the results.

Last time around, the Jane Fund's decision to take a fresh exposure to the stock had sparked off a post result rally.

Given the current outlook for tech stocks globally, which is far from inspiring, players would be more than happy if there are no profit warnings.

Even Satyam Computers seems to be witnessing a similar trend.The Prudent Fund was reported to have been among the prominent sellers at the counter, offloading close to 1.6 lakh shares. Just a few months back, mention of an ADR issue would have been good enough for most fund managers to cling on to the stock. But given the current scenario on the Nasdaq, few players are willing to run any risk as far as tech stocks are concerned. No prizes for this The T No Prize fund is reported to be continuing with its purchases at the Cipla counter.

Close to 50-60,000 shares are reported to have been mopped yesterday. However with volumes now beginning to pick up, the scrip is gradually facing resistance at higher levels. The scrip touched a high of Rs 870 before slipping to Rs 830 levels at close, on volumes of about 8 lakh shares on the BSE alone.

Santosh Nair(e-mail: santoshnair@myiris.com)

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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