Mumbai, Oct 9: Mint Road hogs the limelight again. Notwithstanding Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Bimal Jalan's statement that this year's mid-term monetary review will be a routine affair, a few moves on refinance and export-due surcharge may well be on the cards.Quite a few conjecture that the central bank may opt to reinstate the refinance limits that had been slashed by 50 per cent in September after the rupee fell to an life-time low of 46.41 -- at least on the export refinance front. Further, it is also expected that the surcharge of 25 per cent imposed on overdue export proceeds may be pulled back.
These apart, many believe that the RBI will announce new valuation norms for securities with a buffer by way of an hold-to-maturity of 25 per cent. While this may well bring relief to banks, it is also felt that tighter norms may well be on the way for investment in corporate bonds and other non-statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) instruments.
And all these may well form part of a larger package that intends to give a boost to banks investments in the capital markets to the extent of 5 per cent of their outstanding loans. Additionally, the RBI may well link a bank's exposure to capital markets to its financial health.
It is also conjectured that fresh guidelines on bill discounting, asset-liability management and a further deepening of the term-money market may also be well in the offing.
Other institutional issues like transparency in the management of banks, and a road map of sort for universal banking is also coming through. However, there wouldn't be any reduction in the bank rate or in the cash reserve ratio.
The market is awash with liquidity. Despite progressive reduction in the repos rate, good outflow has been seen at the repos-auctions. In September, the average amount outstanding under repos, has been nearly Rs 11,200 crore.
In the current month, the same has stood over Rs 11,000 crore. The RBI's attempt to cut the repos rate may also be to align it with the bank rate at 8 per cent.
All said, the policy to be announced on Tuesday will be the first without any monetary measures in recent memory. And no aces, unless you were hibernating.
Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.