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Microsoft will lose money till 2001
The idea of writing about Microsoft Corporation once again was triggered by two factors: I badly wanted to boast about my earlier predictions for the company, most of which have come true, and the recent visit of Mr Bill Gates has made Indians more computer- savvy and Bill crazy.A catalysing factor in writing this article has been the fact that I am typing this feature as a Microsoft Word document. How amazing is the immensity of this company's penetration in our lives these days! The million dollar question for Microsoft as well as all of us (though millions do not come when we are concerned!) is the sustenance of this trend. First things first. So let me enjoy my moment of glory. Here I give you selected excerpts from my earlier article accompanied by updated remarks: "There is a danger of break of partnership in Gates' professional or personal life, but this may not get manifested as Gates has no business partner as of now." Little did I know then that the threat of break-up would apply to Microsoft itself. I was amazed when I saw some cartoons in American tabloids picturing this as a split of Mr Gates' head into two halves.The title of the feature was `Bill Gates Likely to Enter the Teaching Profession or Set Up a Training Institute'. A few days after the article appeared came Mr Gates' historic decision to step down as CEO of Microsoft and become its chief software architect. He justified this changeover to his research interests dominating over the more monotonous, managerial tasks. Is this another step towards realising my forecast? "Internationalisation in all forms, whether on the recruitment front or the sales front, increases after October 2000, and stays there for 3-4 years; there is a likelihood of Micro- soft India Ltd coming after October 2000." Of course, Microsoft's Indian office was in existence at the time of my writing the piece. Isn't it astonishing that this month (September 2000) saw Microsoft's collaboration with Infosys on its timeline? I'll admit I was off the mark by a month, though. "Financially, the fiscal year ending June 2000 will not be a bad year, but it may not be a very good year either. The net revenue for the fiscal year that ended in June 1999 was $19.75 billion, while the net income for the same year was $7.79 billion. Do not expect the same level of net income from Microsoft, this year at least." Mr Gates, though poorer now by his own standards, still retains the title of the world's richest man. The list can be lengthened to any extent, but that's enough for now. For you must be curious to know what next now. So here is my next set of predictions for Mr Gates and his company.q Loss of money continues unabated in 2000 and 2001. The break-up of a partnership will finally happen in a roundabout way. But the pieces of the corporation will cooperate in a miraculous way to make Microsoft virtually undivided. In other words, the structural division will not cause an operational division. Mr Gates' confidence that he will win the litigation will be of no use. Research based technologies, newer products, consumer oriented product designs continue to be the key words for Microsoft's policies and methodologies. The recent launch of Windows Me bears testimony to this because it is far more more user-friendly than its predecessors.The gradual diversion of Mr Gates' interest towards academic life will continue. He may eventually end up as a university professor. Recall that formally, Mr Gates is an under-graduate, a drop-out from Harvard.The time between July 2002 and July 2004 will be the best phase in Mr Gates' life, and will see him the unconquered emperor of software once again. The same period will mark the onset of another computer related revolution (a sequel to the present Internet revolution), and Mr Gates will emerge its master.And now a short-term prediction: The time from September 19 to November 15, 2000, brings better news for Microsoft on some major fronts.Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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