It may be interesting to note that though the industry has been growing from year to year, its growth rate has been coming down, but perhaps no one expected it to turn negative. It registered the highest annual growth rate of 35.07 per cent in 1997-98 when its output rose to 4,38,616 tonnes from 324,729 tonnes.

In the subsequent year, while the output increased to 5,22,670 tonnes the annual growth rate shrank sharply to 19.16 per cent. In 1999-00, while the output increased to 5,54,373 tonnes the growth rate fell further 6.07 per cent. Though the industry's growth rate was slowing rapidly in the earlier few years, analysts are baffled to find that it has turned negative in the first quarter of 2000-01 as can be seen from the accompanying table.

One of the reasons for this situation may be that the choice before consumer is between cotton fabrics and 100 per cent synthetics. Composite textile mills having their spinning facility could make use of PSF in blends, but many composite mills are in doldrums. The powerloom sector prefers filaments, instead of fibre.

Another reason for this situation may be that export markets for our PSF have turned very tough, with stiff competition from some aggressive East Asian competitors. This, according to industry sources, is evident from the fact that in the first quarter of 2000-01 our PSF exports have nose-dived 94.59 per cent in quantity and 89.60 per cent in value.

In absolute terms shipments collapsed to just 1167 tonnes in the first quarter of 2000-01 from 3081 tonnes in the same period of the earlier year.

The aggregate value of these shipments in the first quarter of the current year plunged to just $0.18 million from $1.73 million in the same period a year earlier. According to trade sources some European countries have been pressing the European Commissioner to impose anti-dumping duty on imports of PSF from India. Already the European Union has imposed provisional anti-dumping duty on imports of PSF from India. European countries however want it to be made definitive. It is their contention that India has been dumping its PSF below normal price.

Though the Indian Government is expected to oppose such move, it is difficult to say how the European Commission will handle this matter, when many countries such as the UK, Netherlands, Austria, Finland and even Denmark are pressing for anti-dumping duty against Indian PSF. Industry sources do not seem to be hopeful of revival of PSF exports from the country. In fact shipment plunged to zero in May last.

It might be interesting to note that the growth rate of the polyester filament has also slowed down, though it has still been positive in the first quarter of the current year, unlike in the case of PSF. Polyester filament industry registered a remarkable growth of 35.40 per cent in 1997-98 over the previous year. Its growth rate, however, declined to 11.68 per cent in 1998-99 and further to 7.02 per cent in 1999-00, when its production stood at 797,716 tonnes. In the first quarter of 2000-01 the growth rate has come down to 4.87 per cent with production for the period, amounting to 201,622 tonnes against 192,266 tonnes in the same period of the previous year.