With massive damage done by floods and heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh and the emerging near drought situations in MP, western Orissa, Saurashtra, Kutch, Diu and east Rajasthan, it might be embarrassing for the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to declare it as a `normal monsoon' only on basis of area weighted average rainfall for the country.

As only one month remains for the monsoons to come to a close, it is unlikely that these regions will have sufficient rains to qualify themselves as `normal rainfall areas'.

MP situation Till August 30, west MP received only 526 mm rainfall as against a normal of 744 mm, thus make the rainfall in the region deficient by 29 per cent. In the like period last year west MP received 598 mm rains which is 72 mm more than the rainfall received in the current monsoon. On September 1, only Khajuraho in this region received substantial rains amounting to 3 cm.

Similarly east MP received 676 mm rains till August 30 as against a normal of 929 mm, thus making it deficient by 27 per cent. In the like period last year this region received 142 mm more rains than that in the current period.

On September 2, only Satna in this region received substantial rainfall amounting to 2 cm.

East Rajasthan
Till August 30, this region received only 384 mm rains as against a normal of 507 mm, thus making it deficient by 24 per cent. In the like period last year, this region received 65 mm more rains than that in the current period.

In last year there was drought in this region.

Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu
Till August 30, this region received only 293 mm rains as against a normal of 459 mm, thus making it deficient by 36 per cent. In the previous year there was widespread drought in the region.

Other deficient rainfall areas
While due to heavy rainfall in the previous week on the west coast, Kerala and Lakshadweep could make up their rainfall deficiency, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura still remain in the deficient rainfall category.

The cumulative rainfall till August 30 in Andaman & Nicobar Islands is only 865 mm as against a normal of 1174 mm, making it deficient by 26 per cent.

On August 31 Noncowrie and Hut Bay received 3 cm rains each and Carnicobar received only one cm rainfall. On September 1, Mayabandar received 4 cmm rains and Port Blair 2 cm rainfall.

Similarly, the cumulative rainfall in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura is 836 mm as against a normal of 1061 mm, making it deficient by 21 per cent. In the like period last year, this region received 1010 mm rainfall.

On August 31, Imphal and Chottabekra received 2 cm rainfall each and Kailashahar received only one cm rainfall. On September 1, Imphal received 3 cm rainfall and Chottabekra and Kailashahar received one cm rainfall each.

Rain Forecast
Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Bihar and east UP, at many places in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Sikkim, north Orissa, plains of West UP, north MP, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala.Rains are also expected at a few places in south Orissa, hills of west UP, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, south central Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Laksdhaweep and at isolated places over the rest of the country.

Monsoon Axis
On the morning of September 2, the well marked low pressure area over Bihar plateau and adjoining parts of Gangetic West Bengal concentrated into depression over Bihar and lay centred near north latitude 24.0 degree and longitude 85.0 degree about 70 kms south of Gaya. System is likely to intensify further and move in a west northwesterly direction. The axis of the monsoon trough on sea level chart passed through Ferozpore, Bareilly, Varanasi and the centre of the depression through, Balasore and thence southeastwards to north Andaman sea. The trough on sea level chart from karnatak coast to Kerala coast persisted The cyclonic circulation extending upto lower tropospheric levels over Punjab and adjoining parts .