Hong Kong, Sept 1: While Europe's third-generation wireless spectrum auctions reached dizzyingly expensive heights, parcelling-out 3G airwaves in Asia is likely to be a relatively low-rent affair.Most Asian countries are expected to award spectrum through so-called `beauty parades' - often with a financial element - and usually to incumbent players.
Japan, where the world's first commercial rollout of 3G is expected in May, has already given away for free 3G spectrum licences to the country's three incumbent carriers.
China, on the other hand, which has the world's second-largest wireless industry (after the united states), has not even begun to figure out how it will allocate 3G spectrum.
The few auctions that do occur in Asia are likely to be far less-contested than the European battles that saw winners pay a total of $34 billion in Britain and $46 billion in Germany for the right to spend billions more to build wireless networks that are expected someday to deliver high-speed Internet access.
"They (Asia) are either rigged markets or they're just too small to matter,'' said analyst Richard Ferguson of Nomura Securities.
The anticipated lack of competitive bidding results from a regulatory environment that protects most Asian telecoms firms from foreign competition. The reality is that the few markets that are open to outsiders are not as tantalizing to would-be bidders as Britain, Germany or Italy - or the United States, which is expected to raise roughly $45 billion to $56 billion in upcoming spectrum auctions. "Foreign ownership limits in Asian markets tend to put a cap on the size of a foreign strategic investment,'' said analyst Hani Abuali of Donaldson, Lufkin Jenrette.
In parts of the region such as China, India and Southeast Asia, wireless penetration rates are so low that there is plenty of opportunity left in 2G, or current-generation technology, and thus no near-term need to leap ahead to 3G.
And unlike in Europe, where national boundaries are blurring when it comes to regulation and commerce and a Pan-European strategy is thus deemed crucial for the survival of major telcos, there's neither an economic catalyst nor regulatory framework for carriers to be Pan-Asian.
"Asia's 3G market is relatively small when compared with Europe's," and regulatory policies are still unclear, said Canning Fok, group managing director of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd, the Hong Kong conglomerate that operates the biggest wireless system in Hong Kong and has been an unpredictable if deep-pocketed participant in Europe's spectrum auctions.
"We are not about to go out and bid for spectrum at high auction prices," added Alex Arena, deputy chairman of Pacific Century Cyberworks, which owns the number-two wireless network in Hong Kong and recently struck a joint venture with Australia's Telstra Corp with the intention of expanding wireless operations in the region.
While sky-high bidding in Europe's most prized markets has punished share prices and pressured credit ratings of European telecom firms, the chief outlay Asian carriers will face is the cost of building out next-generation networks.
"In our view, the Asian wireless companies are better shielded from that (auction) risk than their US and European counterparts," said Dlj's Abuali.Some major markets in the Asia-Pacific region will use some form of auction to dole out spectrum for 3G service, which is also known as UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecoms System).
In Australia, the treasury expects to take in more than a 2.6 billion by auctioning a still-undetermined number of 3G spectrum licences in January 2001.
But telcos down under repeatedly argue that the licences will not be expensive, as the country is vast and thinly populated and thus not as attractive as Europe - despite its relative wealth.
Korea, which has one of the most advanced telecoms markets in the world and - like Hong Kong, Finland and Italy - has more wireless phones than landlines, plans to hold a self-described `beauty contest' that will include bidding and also assess factors such as technology, experience and Financial strength.
But bidding won't get out of hand, as regulators have set a bid ceiling of 1.3 trillion won ($1.17 billion) and a floor of 1 trillion won for the three spectrum licences set to be granted by the end of the year.
Thus, the Korean licences will be valued at roughly $ 26 per `pop' - or person in the country, a fraction of the $120 in Britain and $110 in Germany, said DLJ's Abuali.
In wireless-happy Hong Kong, where six competitors now bludgeon each other in one of the world's most saturated markets, regulators will soon decide how to award an expected five licences. Few observers expect a pure auction, which some critics worry would see licence costs passed along to consumers.
Authorities in Singapore expect to decide by the end of the year how to distribute 3G spectrum. In July the Infocomm development authority said it planned to award between four and six licences, with commercial operation expected to begin at the end of 2002.
Taiwan has not yet decided how to dole out 3G spectrum, but an advisory team suggested the government hand out five licences by government review instead of auction in a system similar to the one implemented for private fixed-line telephony in march. Cash-strapped Japan took some heat at home for giving away 3G spectrum to the country's three incumbent carriers.
Combined, the three, led by behemoth NTT Docomo 9437.T are said to be spending at least one trillion yen ($9.41 billion) to build 3G networks.
While some analysts credit regulatory policy for helping Japan develop wireless services faster than anywhere else, critics - most notably Internet investor Softbank Corp 9984.T president Masayoshi Son - have said that Japan threw away a golden chance to raise trillions of yen. Docomo is set to be the first carrier in the world to roll out commercial 3G when it will begin selling phones using the WCDMA (wideband code division multiple access) standard in May.
But China, where wireless usage could reach roughly 73 million by the end of this year from about 43 million at the end of 1999, has not decided how it will award 3G licences.
"There is no timeframe for third generation mobile communications," said Liu Cai, director general of policy at the ministry of information industry. Analysts expect China, which is now dominated by two state backed wireless carriers with a third expected, could ultimately award six 3G licences, but it could be years before the networks are up and running.
Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.