The cumulative rainfall in the entire country from beginning of the monsoon season in June 1 to August 23 has been only 8 per cent below the normal average for the period. This marginal deficiency of 8 per cent is due to less rains in MP.

According to the data available with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cumulative rainfall has been deficient in whole of MP; western part of Orissa adjoining MP; Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu; Kerala; Lakshadweep; Andaman & Nicobar Islands; Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu are likely to get rains due to a low pressure area formed off the Gujarat coast on August 26. This may compensate some amount of rain deficiency in the area which is 40 per cent below normal. But this region has received 255 mm rains in the current period as compared to only 181 mm rains received in the like period last year. Besides the Gujarat region of the state has received a normal rainfall of 661 mm till date.

Kerala has received a cumulative rainfall of 1,301 mm as against 1,488 mm rains in the like period last year. The cumulative rainfall in the current season in the state is deficient by only 29 per cent. As the normal average rainfall is usually high in the state, there is no concern for any water stress conditions in the future. Besides, the state receives rains from the northeast monsoon in October-December.

In Lakshadweep the rainfall deficiency is of 33 per cent and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands the deficiency is of only 25 per. As these are islands, the water stress conditions are not likely to occur.

The cumulative rainfall is also marginally deficient in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. The deficiency is only of 23 per cent. This region has received 767 mm rains as against the normal average of 996 mm for the period. The area being mostly hilly there is not much concern for any water stress conditions in future.

But the main concern is for MP and western part of Orissa for any likely water stress conditions in future.

Situation in MP West MP has so far received a cumulative rainfall of 485 mm as against a normal of 675 mm for the period, thus making it deficient by 28 per cent. In the corresponding period of the previous year west MP received a cumulative rainfall of 569 mm. Similarly, east MP in the current monsoon received a cumulative rainfall of 681 mm as against a normal of 858 mm, making it deficient by 21 per cent. In the like period last year east MP received 737 mm rains.

The concern for likely water stress conditions in future remains for MP as the state is totally landlocked and for heavy rains movements of dense clouds from the coastal zones are much needed.

Situation in Orissa Orissa has received a cumulative rainfall of 681 mm as against a normal of 846 mm and against 721 mm rains received in the like period last year. Most of the concentration of rains has been in the coastal area while the western part of the state close to MP has received less rains.Heavy rains & floods in AP In the whole of Andhra Pradesh, the cumulative rainfall has been in excess. The coastal AP received 47 per cent excess rains, the Telangana region received 33 per cent excess rains and the Rayalaseema region received 96 per cent excess rains. The districts worst affected by floods are Guntur and Kurnool.

A 11-member central team, headed by Union agriculture minister, Nitish Kumar, has arrived in Hyderabad for an on-the-spot assessment of the damage caused by heavy rains, which have left a trail of death and destruction in Andhra Pradesh, claiming 131 lives so far. Agri scientist team from Acharya NG Ranga Agriculture University are also assessing the damage to crops. The centre had already released Rs 74 crore in two instalments to the state out of the Rs 104.5 crore allocated in the calamity relief fund this year.

As per preliminary estimates, the floods have caused losses amounting to Rs 600 crore to Rs 700 crore and over one lakh families spread over 13 districts had been affected.

Caution
The heavy rains and floods in Andhra Pradesh may cause earthquakes, professor and head of the department of Indian institute of Technology (IIT-Kanpur), Ramesh P Singh. Already Army has been alerted to be prepared to evacuate people from low-lying areas in and around Hyderabad following reports of possible breaches to water tanks, even as a new low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal fuelled fears of further devastation in the already flood-ravaged Andhra Pradesh.

Rain forecast
Enhanced rainfall activity along west coast and over Gujarat is likely to continue. It may extend into northwest India. Monsoon activity may be suppressed in northeast India and also over MP. Wet spell likely in Andhra Pradesh and neighbourhood. In north India rainfall is likely in Himachal Pradesh, hills of west UP, at few places in Haryana, J&K, east Rajasthan and plains of UP.