The rally began with a big jump in the price of Infosys and Himachal Futuristics. The market took off behind the news that the FIIs were net buyers. The rot began when once again the market decline started due to a sell-off in several software stocks.

The value of the rupee has been eroding consistently since some time and this is not helping the market at all. One the other hand the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures have not helped the value of the rupee, and though the apex bank has asked several companies to bring home their foreign funds, there has not been much improvement in the value of the rupee. There will be a lot of sellers in the market unless and until the market he value of the rupee improves drastically. Secondly, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is thinking about putting place stringent rules regarding what constitutes insider trading. The effort of Sebi is laudable considering the mammoth size of the task involved in regulating hundreds of companies. But a beginning in this step is a very good start. If the idea succeeds then, those people having an edge over information will have a problem as information will be distributed evenly. If all have equal excess to the information at the same time then the effect on theprice will be explosive, but the advantage will no longer be limited to a handful of individuals or companies.

The index again formed a small-bodied candle on the weekly chart and this indicates that the market is in a very indecisive phase. On the upper side, the index faces stiff resistance at the level of 4374 points and on the lower side the market has a support at around 4200-4225 points. The index is again moving in a very tight daily range and this has taken shape of an ascending triangle. The triangle is more clearly visible on the hourly charts, which are not shown here. Now on Friday, the index has just managed to close above the level of 4200 points which means that the break in the value of the index was on the lower side. The break in the value of the index means that the market is in a declining mode and there could still be a decline to lower levels. The index has a support at 4133 points and if there is a break below the level of 4133 points the index could see a decline to lower levels 4050 points. The market appears to be weak and there is a chance that the decline could continue for some time.

The indicators are in oversold zone but they do not reflect that there is buying at lower levels. The moving averages convergence divergence (MACD) had generated a buy signal two days back but this signal failed to provide a meaningful rally. On the whole the index looks to be weak and there is a good chance that the market could see a decline to lower levels.

ACC
The price of this stock has just registered a close above the level of Rs 119.50. Though this level is only marginally broken it is a very good breakout as there has been a very good increase in volumes. The price could rally to around Rs 140 in the medium term. One may buy and keep a stop loss below Rs 116.

ZEE TV
The price has a strong support at the level of Rs 377 and if the price breaks below the level of Rs 377, there could be a decline to around Rs 315. Holders may consider selling this stock if there is a break below the level of 377 for as there will be an opportunity to acquire the stock at lower levels.

Grasim
The price has formed a long white candle on Friday and the price is moving between Rs 284 and Rs 290 since last couple of days. One may buy this stock once there is a break out from the level of Rs 290 for a target if Rs 330 in the medium term. One may buy and keep a stop loss below Rs 284.ITC The price has distinctly turned weak and there is a good chance that the price may see a drop to around Rs 330. One may sell short on break below Rs 357 and keep a stop loss above Rs 372.

Larsen & Toubro
The price is in a steady up trend and there could be a brief spurt to around Rs 239 in a couple of trading sessions. One may buy and keep a stop loss below Rs 212.

-- (The writer's e-mail address is shahmani1@yahoo.com)