The analysis shows that in the remaining three years, India missed the targets by a wide margin. During 1995-96, the export target set at 17 per cent was exceeded, and the actual rate worked out to 20.8 per cent. During 1999-2000, however the achievement was 11.6 per cent, marginally exceeding the target of 11.3 per cent.

India slipped the target of 20 per cent in 1996-97 and posted a growth rate of only 5.3 per cent. Similar is the case in 1997-98 when the growth registered was 4.6 per cent, way behind the target of 18 per cent. During 1998-99, however, the exports posted a negative growth of 5.1 per cent against the target of 12.66 per cent.

During the first two months of 2000-01, the exports registered a growth of 29.57 per cent, and the target for the whole year has been set at 18 per cent. This was for the first time that exports recorded such a high growth rate in two months. It is officially stated that the shortfall in exports up to 1999-2000 has been partly due to international factors such as recession in the world market, South East Asian currency meltdown as well as crisis in Russia and some Latin American countries.

At home, infrastructural constraints and other impediments like a narrow basket of exportable goods and low unit value realisation were other reasons. A number of steps have been taken to further enhance the export growth. These include reduction in transaction cost through decentralisation, simplification of procedures and various other measures enumerated in the revised export and import policy notified on March 31. It is also stated that steps have been taken to promote exports through multilateral and bilateral initiatives, identification of thrust sectors and regions.

India's trade deficit at $ 6.48 billion during 1997-98 rose to $ 9.17 billion during 1998-99 but came down to $ 8.62 billion during 1999-2000. During the first two months of 2000-01,the deficit stood at $ 2.14 billion (provisional).