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FII selling, rupee crash make IT stocks attractive 

Jai Kumar NR  
New Delhi, July 24: lf you have a cyber dream, this should make you jump out of your seat. Thanks to a 676-point crash in Sensex coupled with a sharp depreciation in the rupee, infotech stocks have once again turned attractive. Most of the software stocks are now trading at an attractive PE multiple and prices have crashed upto 38 per cent since July 10.The depreciation in rupee has added to their charm since it will give a further push to IT companies' bottomline.

This will prove to be a double bonanza for investors who can now enter the software counters. Software prices have fallen sharply thanks to a heavy off-loading from foreign investors and mutual funds. In fact, investors have not taken kindly to the RBI's move to hike CRR ratio by 50 basis points and bank rate by 100 basis points in order to suck liquidity out of the system.The RBI move is viewed as a knee-jerk reaction to the recent fall in the rupee. The central bank's intervention, which may lead to a higher interest rate regime at least in the short-term, comes at a time when the industrial demand for credit is picking up.

FIIs have been pressing (fear on the political front was one of the reasons) selling for the past several trading sessions and the RBI move seems to have added fuel to fire. On Monday, the Sensex plummeted by anotther 275 points, thereby taking the total fall to nearly 700 points.

The profit-booking at these counters is despite the fact that software companies have come out with yet another impressive show for the first quarter of the current fiscal. This shows that most software companies have been quick to move up the value chain and are no longer dependent on Y2K related revenue.

According to analysts, rupee may still settle around at Rs 45 despite the RBI intervention. This is likely to give a lift to software companies' earnings as they earn a substantial portion from exports while they hardly have any exposure to imports.

Fourteen leading software companies have fallen by 7-38 per cent during the period July 10-Julu 21. For instance, Leading Edge has fallen from a peak of Rs 782.4 on July 10 to Rs 481 on July 21. The stock is trading at an attractive PE multiple of Rs 33.7.Market darling Wipro has shed 29 per cent from Rs 3031 on July 10 to Rs 2145 on July 21. The stock is currently changed hands at Rs 193.7. DSQ Software is another major loser which fell from a high of Rs 1014 to Rs 767, a fall of 24 per cent. The stock is currently quoted at a PE of 63.2.

Digital Equipment another major software player which has fallen by 17 per cent from Rs 635 to Rs 521.The market darling Infosys Technology has fallen by 12.72 per cent from a level of Rs 8326 on July 10 to Rs 7267 on July 21. The stock is currently traded at an attractive PE of 133.

For the first quarter of the current fiscal, Infosys recorded a sharp growth of 111.6 per cent in net profit to Rs 127 crore against Rs 60 crore in the corresponding quarter of the last fiscal. Infosys recorded a total income of Rs 370.64 crore and of this, 27 per cent accounted for e-businesss.Satyam Computer is another major loser which shed almost 14 per cent on the bourses. Satyam clocked a net profit growth of 94.8 per cent to Rs 50.36 crore (before extra ordinary item) for the first quarter of fiscal 2001 against Rs 25.84 crore for the three-month period of fiscal 2000.

Geometric Software is hammered to a low of Rs 548, a loss of 11.6 per cent. The stock is currently changing hands at a PE of 34. For the first quarter of fiscal 2001, Geometric reported a 61.46 per cent spurt in net profit to Rs 1.76 crore from Rs 1.09 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.

HCL Infosystems has suffered a loss of 10.21 per cent. In fact, on July 21, the stock hit a new 52-week low of Rs 364 and is currently trading at a PE of only 17.3. Thanks to the current crash, Cybermate, SQL Star International, Compucom Software, Dan Law Technologies, Integrated Hitech, Mascot Systems, S.Kumar.Com, Shri MM Softech and Softpro Systems have all hit a new low.

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