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Mammoth deals expected to spur more consolidation in food industry 

Shelly Branch  
Food-Industry consolidation may have been a long time brewing, but now it seems almost everybody wants into the pot.

The mammoth deals of the past few weeks, especially Unilever NV's pending acquisition of Bestfoods and Philip Morris Cos' agreement Sunday to buy Nabisco Holdings Corp, "are going to cause other companies to take a second look at their peers," says Erika Gritman Long, an analyst with JP Morgan.Once they start examining one another, "they may be a little more attracted to them than before."

Indeed, the $14.91 billion deal to combine Philip Morris's Kraft Foods unit with Nabisco does several things that should spur other food companies to pair up. First, it removes a deep-pocketed suitor from the table, at least temporarily, as Kraft turns its attention to integrating the Nabisco business.

Then there is the tantalising plan for Philip Morris to have an initial public offering for as much as 15 per cent of its newly enlarged food business, with its annual revenue of nearly $35 billion. That move effectively will put two new rivals on the block: one giant to battle in the supermarket aisles, plus a promising new stock against which other food companies invariably will be judged on Wall Street.

Some of the companies that have so far watched the mergers from the sidelines now say they are ready to step in. When ConAgra Inc last week announced that it had agreed to buy International Home Foods Inc, HJ Heinz Co saw complementary assets like Bumble Bee tuna and Chef Boyardee pastas get snatched away. "We're a company of hunters," ConAgra chief executive Bruce Rohde said.

As his fighting words suggest, the stakes are getting higher on multiple fronts. Slow-growth food companies once could boost results - and please investors - with a mix of cost savings, divestitures and price increases. Those options - as Campbell Soup Co has recently discovered - are largely tapped out.

And while some well-managed food companies continue to play down the need for food-industry consolidation, those very same marketers, Bestfoods included, have come to realise that powerful, global alliances may be the only way to ensure their products can achieve sustainable growth.

The market appears to be suggesting as much. During the past two years, when the earnings outlook for food concerns was particularly bleak, many viewed the implicit growth rate for some of these companies as negative. But as share prices have risen in lockstep with the recent consolidation, "people see that are the best way for companies to reinvigorate themselves, to get better top and bottom-line growth," says Romitha Mally, a Goldman, Sachs & Co analyst.

At a news conference Monday, Philip Morris chief executive Geoffrey C Bible bragged about the ability to promote Nabisco's Ritz crackers with Kraft's vast repertoire of cheeses. An advertising coup? Perhaps. But Bible and the folks at Kraft more likely are thinking about how to use their new snacks as a battering ram at the doors of retailers.

"Because of consolidation in the retail industry, [companies] need to have a portfolio of brands with power," says Tom Palombo, president of Merchandising Corp of America, which handles displays for packaged-goods companies. "Years ago, if you didn't buy my brand, I'd sell to someone else." With fewer retailers in the game, companies such as Nabisco have been hard-pressed to push around the likes of a Wal-Mart Stores Inc or Kroger Co until now.

Teamed up with Kraft, Nabisco gains crucial leverage for its brands that could translate into pricing power, as a single sales force could handle Kraft cheese and Oreo cookies, for example.

Another benefit: "Kraft and Nabisco can grow faster, because fewer of their marketing dollars will get wasted," says John McMillin, an analyst with Prudential Securities. At the retail level, Kraft will be able to negotiate bigger, broader trade promotions - a luxury that likely won't exist for smaller rivals.

With the Big Three - Nestle, Kraft and Unilever - duking it out in the aisles, all eyes are on the possibilities for the next round of mergers. "Kraft and Unilever have big companies to digest," says Peter Brabeck, chief executive of Swiss food company Nestle SA. "This means the next round of consolidation involves smaller companies - perhaps companies like Heinz and Campbell."

As they pick over the other big food assets left on the table, several analysts are placing bets on a Midwestern trio: Quaker Oats Co of Chicago, Keebler Foods Co of Elmhurst, Ill, and Ralston Purina Group, of St Louis Not all of them, though, have an urge to merge. Executives at Quaker, while not ruling out the chance for a deal, have said they are happy with their roster of brands - including super-hot Gatorade - and feel immune from "me-too" pressures.

Wall Street doth protest. In the wake of the Nabisco feeding frenzy, Quaker Oats rose $1.6875 to $74.875 in 4 pm New York Stock Exchange composite trading Monday, while Keebler rose 81.25 cents to $38.8125 and Ralston rose 25 cents to $19.875. "It's only a matter of time," Prudential's McMillin says. "They'll be somebody else's dinner before long."

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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