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Sensex faces resistance at level 4760 

K Seshadri  
Yesterday this column forecast that Sensex could rise to the level of 4725. It actually rose to 4733, and closed at 4687. The index has closed on a note of strength.

Many scrips in the Sensex look not only firm, but capable of an upward thrust. This alone can ensure that the Sensex pushes its way up. The market opened with the index at 4683, higher than the previous close of 4671. It moved between 4700 and 4730 for most part of the day. The intra-day high at 4733 was 35 points above the previous high of 4698. It was 125 points higher than Monday's low of 4608. The intra day low at 4678 too was an improvement over the previous low of 4608.

The volume picture reveals that market operators have taken a bold position. The advance volume at BSE has gone up from Rs 582 crore to Rs 1,838 crore. The number of scrips in advance moved up from 630 to 709. At NSE, the advance volume went up from Rs 570 crore to Rs 1,153 crore. The decline volume went down from Rs 1,561 crore to Rs 1,174 crore.

The daily stochastic indicator continues to be on the sell mode. But despite the index has the potential to rise. For Wednesday 4760 will be the crucial level for the Sensex. It could collapse after touching this level. But price pattern on several scrips indicate that this is only a weak possibility. On the other hand if it manages to push past this firmly, it could aim to reach 4890. Now this target can be reached on Wednesday itself, or in another 2 sessions. For the event to happen on Wednesday, FIIs would have to come in with big ticket purchases. If that does not happen, the advance northwards could be spread over three sessions. If you are in profit you could wait until 4682 to sell.

As the market approaches 4900 level, you should put on your alert signals. If the market shows weakness and the index starts stagnating, you would stand to gain much by short selling. Of course you must cover your shorts at 4920. You must adopt the same strategy if you find the index breathing hard at 4760.

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