With the likely formation of a low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal, rainfall activity is likely to increase over central and western parts of the country.

Earlier, the current southwest monsoon moved fast across the mainland and reached its northern limit at 20 degree north latitude and 60 degree east longitude encompassing Dahanu, Indore, Bhopal, Khajuraho, Lucknow, Bareilly, Dehradun, Shimla and Bhuntar about six days before schedule at most of the places. Thereafter, a weakness developed in the monsoon system since June 9 which prevented it from proceeding further.

Monsoon review
Since the arrival of the monsoon in India along the Kerala coast in June 1, there has been deficient rainfall in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Saurashtra, Kutch, Diu, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.

However, Orissa, Bihar plateau, east Uttar Pradesh, plains of western Uttar Pradesh, hills of west UP, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, east Rajasthan, west MP, east MP, Gujarat region, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Konkan, Goa, central Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, south interior Karnataka and Kerala recived excess rainfall.

There was normal rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar plains, west Rajasthan and Lakshadweep.

Comparison with previous year
According to the rainfall data available with IMD till June 14, about 8 meteorological sub-divisions of the country received less rainfall than that in the corresponding period in the previous year. These are Andaman & Nicobar Islands; Arunachal Pradesh; Assam and Meghalaya; sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim; Rayalaseema; Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry; Kerala and Lakshadweep. Rest of the area of the country had rainfall more than that in the corresponding period in the previous year.

Out of a total 424 meteorological districts in the country, in the current monsoon 8 districts receive no rainfall, 28 districts received scanty rainfall, 42 districts received deficient rainfall, 61 districts received normal rainfall and 250 districts received excess rainfall. Otherwise 20 per cent of the districts received scanty to deficient rainfall and 80 per cent of the districts received normal to excess rainfall. In the corresponding period in the previous year 52 per cent of the districts received scanty to deficient rainfall and 48 per cent of the districts received normal to excess rainfall.

Rain forecast
By June 19, rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places in Kerala, at a few places in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Orissa, Bihar, East Madhy Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at isoalted places over the rest of the country with the exception of south Rajasthan, West MP, Gujarat state and north central Maharashtra where the weather will be mainly dry.

Caution
The trough on sea level chart passes through Himachal Pradesh, south UP, north Orissa and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal and extends in the lower levels.

An embeded cyclonic circulation on the above trough extending up to 1.5 km ASL lies over southwest UP and neighbourhood. The cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Orissa now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Orissa and West Bengal coast between 3.6 and 7.6 kms ASL. The cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away northeastwards.