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`US high-tech stocks could be heading for a fall' 

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE  
US high-tech stocks could be heading for a fall, just one of the uncertainties in an increasingly complex Financial landscape, the OECD said on Thursday. The OECD said that it was increasingly difficult to define what is "normal" in this climate. "European `new economy' shares are in some cases outperforming Amercian ones .... a downward correction of US high-tech stocks is not an unrealistic possibility," the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its four-monthly Financial Market Trends report. Emerging markets, meanwhile, "have staged a remarkable recovery" in the past year, particularly those in Asia, and foreign investors are once again willing to lend to emerging economies. But the OECD warned that although technological development and an increasingly global economy had led to many benefits, it also tended to "more harshly discipline" mistakes which are increasingly difficult to avoid.

"The new financial landscape is generating many benefits. It is a fact of life in a market environment that these benefits can only be obtained by undertaking risky activities and projects," the OECD said. But "a fundamental and constant challenge for policymakers is to assess what the 'normal' risks ... are in an evolving fainancial environment. "There are no easy answers," the report said, and the inability of policy makers and market participants to evaluate risks in a fast-developing market "creates a fundamental uncertainty in the financial system." The only protection is to follow the common-sense rule "the higher (the) uncertainty, the lower (the) leverage," in the form of less debt and more equity to provide "a larger buffer against adverse circumstances and stresses in the financial system".

The OECD report highlighted the problem of regulating an increasingly globalised Financial services sector in the wake of a wave of merger and acquisition activity which has accelerated in Europe with the birth of the euro last year. "Concerns could grow about the possibility for a limited number of very large players to have considerable power to restrict competition," the report said. The US banking market has already undergone widespread consolidation, and that of South Korea and Japan is also underway, albeit driven by the need to recapitalise a failing system rather than boost profits. The EU market is likely to follow suit with the introduction of the euro, but while cross-border wholesale banking has proven its ability to increase efficiency in new products, the jury is still out on the advantages for retail and "traditional" banking services, the report said.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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