In a Reuters poll of 10 economists, they forecast Brown would give away at most 2.5 billion pounds ($3.93 billion) in the 2000-2001 financial year. One respondent forecast a de facto net tightening of 5.0 billion.

The budget could be the last-but-one before the next general election and the electorate is baying for better public services, particularly in health.But giving away too much could compromise an aim which the Labour government cherishes almost as much as getting re-elected: ending the once wild swings in interest rates which have damaged the British economy so badly over the years.

"The budget must be neutral or monetary policy will have to be tightened," said Trevor Williams at Lloyds TSB, who forecast Brown would add less than two billion pounds to the economy.

"But he will point to having successfully avoided recession last year and try to gear the budget towards helping small firms, particularly hi-tech firms," he said. "There will be lots of noise but little substantive in terms of increased spending in these areas."

In the straw poll of 10 economists, three forecast the budget would be neutral and another "neutral/mildly stimulatory". All but one of the others forecast Brown would add between 1 and 2.5 billion pounds to the economy.Most economists forecast Brown would raise his economic growth forecast for this year to 2.75 to 3.25 per cent, a quarter percentage point higher than in his pre-budget statement last November. The 2001 forecast would remain at 2.25-2.75.

Political trick

At a key stage in the interest rate cycle, Brown's political trick must be to appear more generous than he really is. Brown is determined to achieve steady long-term economic growth instead of the short-lived booms, followed by recessions, which have bedevilled the British economy for decades.

A key part of that is ironing out interest rates. Two economic cycles ago the British repo rate peaked at 15 per cent; last time it peaked at 7.5 per cent in June 1998. The rate is currently 6 per cent and rising.

If Brown pumps too much extra money into the economy the Bank of England, which he himself made independent, will simply take it back out again and could push rates back to 7.5 per cent.

"However you look at it, the chancellor is under pressure to deliver a significant fiscal loosening next Tuesday," said David Hillier and Adam Law at Barclays Capital in a budget preview.

They said the next election, which Prime Minister Tony Blaircan call any time up to May 2002, is probably only about 14 months away. "The problem is Brown knows that (a big fiscal loosening) is the last thing the economy needs."

Hillier and Law forecast that a give-away of two to five billion pounds would add 0.4 to 1 per cent to inflation on the RPIX index, currently 2.1 per cent. That would push the index up to, or over, the Bank of England's target of 2.5 per cent.

In response, the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee would raise the repo rate an additional 0.5 to 1 percentage point.

"With rates already set to rise another 50 basis points, Brown would only loosen policy this much if he was prepared to see the repo peak at 7 to 7.5 per cent," they said. "In our view, he isn't," they said. "An extra 25 basis points on the rate peak is probably the most he will accept. That means a fiscal loosening of only 1 billion pounds is likely." James Carrick at ABN Amro said Brown would appear to give away 5 billion pounds but the reality would be the opposite. "That's what the budget package would be but you have to make sure you're comparing it from the correct base," he said. ABN Amro forecast that the budget surplus would be about 10 billion pounds a year better than Brown forecast in his pre-budget report.