The net exportable surplus of rice in India in the year 2020 is likely to be 0.985 million tonne as the projected output in the year is 145.77 million tonne as against the domestic consumption demand of 144.79 million tonne. In Pakistan, there will be an exportable surplus of 0.898 million tonne as the projected output will be 6.21 million tonne as against the domestic consumption demand of 5.31 million tonne.

Although, India and Pakistan will have a marginal exportable surplus, studies show that if the deceleration in total factor productivity continues, these countries will also face deficit in rice supply. The output growth rate in India in 2020 is projected at 2.22 per cent as against the demand growth rate of 2.23 per cent.

In Pakistan, the projected output growth rate is 1.98 per cent as against the demand growth rate of 3.14 per cent. Bangladesh is likely to have no exportable surplus in 2020 and is likely to import rice. Other South Asian countries will have to import 1.7 million tonne of rice.

But there will be an exportable surplus of 11.523 million tonne in the year 2020 in South-east Asian countries. On the whole of Asia, with the exception of Japan, the exportable surplus will be 13.119 million tonne. In the developed countries there will be an exportable surplus of 2.399 million tonne. Singh stated that the food imbalances in South Asia will continue as the production gains will be offset by growth in demand both from increasing incomes and rapid population expansion. Although rice will continue dominating cereal production in South Asia, its share will decline to 50 per cent in the year 2020 as compared to 60 per cent in 1970 and 57 per cent in 1980. The population of South Asia will increase at the rate of 1.8 per cent to touch 1.9 billion by the year 2020.

While Pakistan is likely to maintain a high population growth rate of 2.8 per cent per year, the growth rate in India will be lower at 1.7 per cent per annum. Rice exporter Yasmin Ismail of SGS Pakistan Pvt Ltd is of the opinion that the present target market is Africa where there is a demand for 5 million tonne of rice. The demand is accentuated due to recent floods in Mozambique. Demand for rice has increased threefold in Latin America since 1975. The main markets for basmati rice is Middle East, the UK, the US, Mauritius, Kenya, Australia and Europe.

President of All India Rice Exporters' Association Gurnam Arora said that as the domestic prices of paddy and rice is quite high, Indian exports during 1999-2000 will not exceed 1.8 million tonne. Both India and Pakistan have a potential to export high quality rice on a permanent basis for which the governments should ensure more export friendly policies.