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Time is ripe to chart out a clear business strategy for the nation 

K Seshadri  
FEBRUARY 4: As end-February approaches, stock markets are looking over their shoulders. Though caution is not unusual, market-players can work themselves into a dilemma, given a mix of positive and negative signals in the economy. We have talked about fiscal deficit long enough. But the government and country refuses to grow beyond adolescence when it comes to tackling it. The legacy factor rules heavy here and present government might justifiably claim their helplessness beyond a point.

But as the fund manager rates corporate managements, it is necessary even to rate the country's rulers. There are two aspects here. One is the ruling party's conviction and the second is its capability. As to the conviction about the need to tackle the fiscal issue, it has been more a matter of concern for the finance minister than others. For other members of the Parliament, solution to issues close to their heart and their constituencies is the core issue. The prime minister has stated that the poor in the country are looking for deliverance.

Political management needs to address the issue on a priority basis. And fit into this picture the practices followed even in developed countries of farm subsidies. The last meeting of WTO Seattle was scuttled, keeping this in view. So one cannot be too harsh on the Indian government, if it is hesitant about hurting certain sections of the society for the sake of bringing the deficit in control. There is a bit of fudging here for vote banks. But the government has started acting selectively. Reducing the PPF interest rate was the first step. Others could follow in the budget.

We are in a rather fortunate situation due to a combination of factors. The inflation has been subdued, thanks to adequate money supply. Money supply in turn could be increased without risking the country's economy too much because of a comfortable foreign exchange balance. India's competitiveness for attracting FDI has played a role here. The portfolio flow has been particularly good during the year that went by. We have sailed through rather comfortably, despite a huge rise in oil bill in foreign exchange.

Lack of non-oil imports has contributed its own share. But as the economy gathers strength, non-oil import is likely to go up. We have also been able to catch up on the export front. That, in turn, has been made possible because of a recovery in the economies of south east Asia. The Indian corporate sector has been able to consolidate and streamline. Each corporate house has been going through business restructuring. Getting out of non-core business, launching new products and fighting for more marketshare has been the mantra. This coupled with the uptrend in commodity markets will ensure bottomline growth for corporates.

In fact, this has already been seen in the last quarterly results. Where will further growth come from? It will come because the GDP can grow by at least 15 per cent year over year, if not 20 per cent. Given this background, the fiscal deficit may not after all weigh heavily on the country. It will certainly weigh on the government and that is the crux of the issue. A stage has come where the government has to weigh carefully how much it can load the industry with its problems.

With close to 50 per cent of the revenue going towards interest payments, the government has limited scope for restructuring. How much can the PSU unloading can bring? Rs 20,000 crore?

But with politicians fighting for class survival, there is serious risk that this money will not go to mitigate the government debt. Is there any surprise that the investors are in a dilemma? The pressure on the government is palpable. The ratio of tax to GDP is declining. Markets will look nervously into how best Sinha will manage under the circumstances. He can afford to live with the higher level of fiscal deficit. And he can get away with it without putting much pressure on the exchange rate.That by itself should be a boon, for any pressure on the exchange rate has a cascading effect on the economy.

But he needs to weigh his measures carefully, almost as if with a microbalance. As finely tuned they need to be as Allan's careful raising of interest rate by 25 basis points after very long deliberation. Careless and gross dedication to government's revenue consideration can put a spoke in the economy's wheel, which is slowly but surely turning faster now. It is time both the finance minister and the nation took a close look at the cost of the government to the nation and what value it adds. It is not impossible to measure this, including the social welfare angle. What this country needs is not handouts to the poor, but an enabling environ where they could earn income and return.

Such a process can be self-fuelling. We have already seen how the middle class is pouring money into mutual funds in a wealth-building activity, which goes across the national borders via the software industry. Similar processes need to be invented and implemented for the lower sections of the society. After all, what has been the government's contribution to date here? Over the years, its expenditure on health and education has been minimal.

It has been going up percentage-wise in the last three years, but in absolute quantum, it does not mean much. And again, there is a quality angle to both education and health services. If China is growing fast, it is because it attended to its education seriously and for a long period. The finance minister, the industry minister and the Prime Minister are sure doing their best in their field and are providing the bottom support to the economy. But is enough being done in agriculture, education and social welfare? Sinha must raise these questions with the Prime Minister.

Governance is not just about taxes, government expenditures and portfolio and FDI inflows. The Prime Minister must clearly lay down the business strategy for the nation. Yes, revenues have their limits, but how much dedication and efficiency have the politicians to attend to other aspects? The nation and the Prime Minister must ask this question.

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