According to projections made by a sub-group of the M S Ahluwalia task force, labour force in the age group of 15+ would be of the order of 435.61 million in 2001, up from 392.97 million in 1996. The force would rise to 483.61 million in 2006 and to 532.70 million in 2011.

The figures are slightly different from the projections made in the Ninth Plan document. The labour force estimates, according to it, are 449.62 million in 2002, up from 397.22 million in 1997. The projections for 2007 and 2012 respectively are 507.94 million and 562.92 million.

The task force, headed by Planning Commission member M S Ahluwalia, was constituted following an announcement by the Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in his 1998 Independence Day speech that 100 million jobs would be created in the 1998-2003 five-year period.

According to Union labour secretary, L Mishra, who is a member of the task force, employment generation in Eighth and Ninth Plans has not kept pace with the labour force. The backlog labour force of 30.4 million will continue unless substantial efforts are made to generate further avenues of employment.

According to latest estimates available from the comprehensive survey on employment and unemployment conducted in the 50th round of National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), about 7.49 million people were openly unemployed and about 30 million persons were underemployed.

In a paper presented at the national seminar on employment generation at Gandhinagar on Friday, Mishra said estimates of unemployment and underemployment on the basis of utilisation of time underestimate the problem.

Large scale underemployment or exploitation of labour on account of low wage and poor quality of employment would continue, he said adding that high prevalence of people working at low levels of productivity would be yet another area of concern.

The percentage of persons and families living below poverty line as also in absolute terms would also be another major area of concern, he said.