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Local dot.com mania may peter out -- Jason Pontin 

Charles Assisi  
MUMBAI, FEBRUARY 4: ``I think dot com is a crazy idea in India. It's spastic. Just give it a break,'' says Jason Pontin, editor of the widely read Red Herring. ``Getting $50 billion out of software exports by 2002 is a reasonable ambition though,'' he adds.

His argument is simple. That the dot com business is a national one. It operates best within the boundaries of a country. And that cliches about geography being history is just that - a cliche.

``Instead,'' he says, ``India has the best pool of software engineers in the world and ought to stick to producing world-class software.'' Else, he argues, that in the long-term, the danger is very real that international investors, will refuse to fund genuinely viable projects in equally viable areas.

``For Christ's sake, don't go out and waste your money on dot com. All you'll do is piss off investors in the long run and maybe seduce a few American investors,'' he argues.

But Pontin has a reputation for being a cautious sceptic when it comes to dot com companies, small or big. ``This is purely irrational euphoria,'' he contends.

For instance, he says, there is a company Criticalpath which ``has gone a bridge too far.'' It has never earned any profits and may not in the future either, he explains. ``But when the company went public for a billion and a half dollars and no one cared, I was aghast. Is it whacky? Or is it great? I don't know,'' he says.

Then there is another aspect to the whole issue Pontin argues. Microsoft, to get where it is, made it on the back of a 40 per cent growth rate consistently. That, he points out, is the kind of growth rate, which has never been achieved by any company in corporate history. If Amazon.com has to make it to the same level, he argues, it will have to grow at over 80 per cent over the next couple of years. ``As an investor, if you believe, that Amazon.com will grow at that pace, then go right ahead and invest in it.''In the same breath though, he adds, ``In 1996, I had predicted the American markets were ready to go bust. Those who believed me, missed out on the greatest wealth creation binge in the history of mankind.''

In spite of which Pontin is willing to stick his neck out and hazard a guess on the kind of valuation trends currently in vogue. ``It's far too hazy. How long will the markets offer valuations of the kind they do for companies that do not make profits?'' he asks.

Perhaps, he says, the frenzy will last till the time the markets settle on the new winners. Which inherently means, who will be the next General Electric (GE) and Microsoft.

Microsoft, he says, will stay Microsoft. There are no contenders for that slot. ``About the only question that needs to be answered is, what is the relevance of Microsoft in the new world.''

As for the next GE, Pontin says, he cannot visualize a conglomerate like that evolving out of any single entity. ``We'll have econets.'' Translated, it means economic networks. These networks, Pontin says, will emerge out of Internet holding companies like Divine Inter Ventures, CMGI and ICG. They were originally created to fund Internet start ups. With time though, they have come together to form collections of companies ``whose members rely on each other for synergy.''

On the future of the print business, Pontin says, ``my official stance is that a pure dot com business is a stupid business.'' The industry will have to look at building a presence in all kinds of media, he adds.

There is an inherent advantage that the print media has, he argues. That they can evolve effectively into the dot com business. But a pure play dot com publishing house integrating backwards into print may be difficult.

He points out to Salon.com as a classic case in point, which failed miserably in its print avatar. ``I don't think the idea of offering both publications is a dumb one. The reason why they failed is because they came to the world with dot com training.''

``Which is why, editors shouldn't rob resources from print to fund online expansion,'' he says. Get one thing right, he continues. ``Print and online pulishing are two different businesses.'' Both need a different kind of resource and a different kind of investment. ``The earlier publishers and editors get that right, the better.''

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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