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Microsoft will chart new courses this 

Saurabh kwatra  
I am launching a series, Star Trek, which is designed to be useful to business houses, corporate managers, investors, and even financial analysts. I begin with Microsoft Corporation, a name chosen neither because of its stunning revenue and profits, nor because of it being in vogue in this Internet-dominated economy; the reason is perhaps, better understood through the words of Microsoft's co-founder William (Bill) H Gates himself. Gates has said in some of his writings and speeches that ``part of my job is to make predictions and act on them. I'm better at forseeing trends than I am at identifying exactly when specific technologies will emerge or achieve mainstream popularity. Predicting timing is tough, as my track record illustrates''.

To a question, ``How much do you believe fate or luck contributed towards your success?'', he answered ``Luck played an immense role. Some of it came after I entered the business world, but my lucky streak started much earlier than that. I was fortunate to have family andteachers who encouraged me. I was incredibly lucky to become boyhood friends with Paul Allen, whose insights proved crucial to the success of the company we founded together.

Without Paul, there would have been no Microsoft. Our timing in setting up the first software company aimed at personal computers was essential to our success. The timing wasn't entirely luck, but without great luck it couldn't have happened. The importance of being born at the right time is a point I make in the revised edition of my book The Road Ahead. My friend Warren Buffett, who's often called the world's greatest investor, talks about how grateful he is to live at a time when his particular talents are valuable. Warren says if he'd been born a few thousand years ago, he'd be probably have been some animal's lunch. But he was born into an age that has a stock market and rewards Warren for his unique understanding of the market.''

Football stars should feel grateful too, Warren says. ``There just happens to be a game'', he says,`where it turns out that a guy who can kick a ball with a funny shape through goal posts, a fair percentage of the time, can make millions of dollars a year. Like Warren and today's football stars, I was born at the right place and time''.

Microsoft Timeline: First, some important datelines in the formation of the leading provider, worldwide, of software for the personal computer. The formation of Microsoft Corporation took place soon after the introduction of a special kit computer, the MITS Altair. On January 1, 1975, the MITS Altair 8800 appeared on the cover page of the famous journal Popular Electronics. This article inspired Paul Allen and Bill Gates (born October 28, 1955 in Seattle, Washington)-who were students of Harvard University at that time-to develop a BASIC Interpreter for the Altair.

On February 1, 1975, both completed BASIC and licensed it to their so-called first customer, MITS of New Mexico. This was the first computer language written for a personal computer. Later, in a letter toAllen, Gates used the name `Micro-soft' to refer to their partnership; this is the earliest known reference. The tradename `Microsoft' was registered on November 26, 1976 with the secretary of state of New Mexico, and on February 3, 1977, a partnership agreement between Allen and Gates was officially executed. On November 1, 1978, Microsoft turned global with the establishment of its first international sales office in Japan. It re-organised itself into a privately held corporation with Bill Gates as its president and chairman of the Board and Paul Allen as its executive vice president on June 25, 1981; Microsoft became Microsoft, Inc.

In August 1981, IBM introduced its PC with Microsoft's operating system. In February 1983, Allen resigned as the executive vice president. The Microsoft stock went public in March 1986. In May 1990, Microsoft Windows 3.0 was launched. August 1995 saw the worldwide launch of Windows 95, while June 1998 saw the launch of its successor Windows 98.

On the legal front, Microsoftwas hassled when the Government announced an anti-trust case in May 1998. The court's findings of the facts were completed in November 1999; the findings were that Microsoft is deleting and not competing in the market! However, this is only an interim step in the ongoing anti-trust lawsuit with the US Justice Department. The final ruling is expected early this year.

The Future of Microsoft through the celestial window: Based on the birth horoscope of Bill Gates and inception charts during the formative years of Microsoft, I have the following predictions for the owner and his company: Natally, Gates' horoscope has an unusual astrological combination that interprets as direct conversion of knowledge to money, fame and power. Of course, there is a negative influence that did not allow him to complete his Harvard under-graduate degree. But when I talk of learning, formal education has little or no role. To his life, perhaps the statement ``for knowledge itself is power'' by Francis Bacon is applicable in toto.I forsee, the time till October 2000, a wondrous phase for Microsoft. Microsoft may diversify its products and services or its master may start another company with diversified interests. I see new projects for the company, specifically in March or July this year.

Note, that the launch of Windows 2000 in February may not be counted towards the authenticity of this forecast. There is a danger of break of partnership in Gates' professional or personal life; but this may not get manifested as Gates has no business partner, as of now.

Financially, the fiscal year ending June 2000 will not be a bad year, but may not be a very good year either. The net revenue for the fiscal year that ended in June 1999 was $19.75 billion, while the net income for the same year was $7.79 billion. Do not expect the same level of net income from Microsoft this year, at least. Gain of property is seen for the company.

Internationalisation or globalisation is steady, if not on a receding note till October 2000. The judgement ofthe US Justice Department will be a mixed result for the company-it will certainly not be detrimental to the company, though Microsoft may not be fully satisfied with it. It can be said that the time till October is an expansive phase, not so much financially, but more so creatively, and professionally with a diversifying edge.

Prominence for Gates and Microsoft increases in 2000, and I do not rule out Gates entering the teaching profession as well; he may start teaching or may launch his own institute.

Long-termed predictions: The financial future of the company is very bright, for decades to come. There are chances of the company floating new shares or investment modes in the year 2001. The company could land itself in some legal battle once again in 2001, and may receive a consequent setback. Year 2001 will also witnesses a kind of academic or intellectual failure in the R&D departments; may be a product launched during that year turns defective or poorly designed.

The time from September2001 to August 2002 is financially bad. Some plans would fail leading to dip in revenue. But, of course, the loss is comparative; it would be better to say that profits during the above mentioned period will be less. Internationalisation in all forms, whether on the recruitment front or sales front increases after October 2000, and stays that way for three-four years; there is a likelihood of a Microsoft India Ltd coming up after October 2000. Despite all this, Microsoft will retain an American character since Gates is very patriotic and nationalist. Digressing for a while, entering politics is not out of bounds for him, though he would win by nomination and not election.

One of the revolutionary epochs in Gates' life was in December 1995 when he publicly outlined Microsoft's commitment to supporting and enhancing the Internet-and that probably marked the beginning of the Internet revolution accompanied by the Internet gold rush. Expect another such epoch in 2000 when the company announces diversificationplans into unexplored domains.

Eventually, Microsoft will become thoroughly connected with education; and may introduce specialised softwares such as mechanical engineering design windows, cardiologist's pack, etc. Some spiritual leanings of Gates are not ruled out; Divine Windows are a possibility wherein God and His commandments are explained to you while you download an economics file from the Internet!

(Mr Saurabh Kwatra, a Delhi-based astrologer, will be writing a regular column for us. He will look at companies-both Indian and international-and predict their fortunes. The views expressed in this column are not those of the paper, but based on Mr Kwatra's stellar calculations.)

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