Corporate Results of over 2500 companies Saturday, December 25, 1999
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Think Tank
This week we focus on a complete analysis of the
gold industry
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In Conversation 

 
Gold Field Mineral Services, director Paul Walker with Sanjiv Aroleof FE-Thinktank.

On forward and futures trading in the Indian bullion markets.
The problems of price rise show just how important it is to have a forward market for the precious metals. Markets will work efficiently only when hedging is available. The alternative is to allow Indians to trade in loco-London and loco-NY gold. Though given the market size, a loco-Indian contract might make more sense.

On hallmarking.
I guess it all depends on how much of low quality gold is collected under the bond scheme. If the volume is high, then people are going to become quality conscious sooner or later. It may also induce the industry (via market forces) to go for hallmarking.

On the impact of the GDS on world gold markets.
I think that in the short term the impact will be small, if too little gold is collected. But if the scheme succeeds in garnering about 100-150 tonnes of gold, then it will send a bear signal to the market as less new gold will be required.

On buyer’s resistance at higher prices.
I think it is there, all over Asia. People have seen $250 and feel it may happen again soon. So, why buy at $290?

On Mumbai loco for gold.
You need a good delivery status. This necessitates assaying and controlling gold bars. It also needs a clearing house. And to work efficiently, it needs to be open to outsiders.

On competition from studded jewellery and platinum jewellery (even in Asian countries) and growth in gold consumption.
Quite frankly, I think these are the growth markets -- and the trends are worrying. Economic growth should see a rise in gold offtake by weight, but at a decreasing rate. Spending may rise linearly, but gold offtake will grow at a slower pace.

On bullion exchange in India.
Further liberalisation of the financial markets is required I believe, but I am not an expert on these matters.

On the latest tranche of BoE sale.
Damp squib. Market is getting used to them, so they no longer cause much impact.

On gold’s role in ten years time.
Effectively no official role at all, with most, if not all, gold being bought for adornmentpurposes.

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