But despite potential problems on the growth front, the yen is in no danger of falling out of bed against the dollar and tumbling to lows seen last year, the survey suggests. According to the median forecast of 47 analysts polled on December 1-2, the dollar will be at 110 yen in 12 months. The range was 87 to 145. But near term, the dollar was still seen flirting with the 100 yen level. The analysts put it at 102 yen in one month, then firming to 105 yen in three months and 106.50 yen in six months.

The dollar was at 102.67 yen at mid-morning on Thursday. Sal Gautieri of the Bank of Montreal saw the yen weakening against the dollar over the coming 12 months but more as a result of US Federal Reserve Board tightening. "We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the first half of next year so the interest rate spread moves in favour of the U.S. Dollar," he said. "It's a cyclical negative development (for the yen)." But "the long term trend seems supportive of the yen," he said, predicting the Japanese currency would start gaining against the dollar in early 2001."

The dollar is down 17 percent from its 12-month high against the yen as investors have charged back to Japan to cash in on a recovery. But economists noted the dollar's weakness was against the yen alone rather than against all major currencies - a consolation for US investors. Broad-based dollar weakness could threaten the nearly nine-year-long US expansion by putting the spotlight on the massive US trade deficit.