``In the last year's default debacle, several exporters failed to fulfill export commitments due wide price fluctuations. Most players lost heavily. The delivery defaults made overseas buyers to switch over to exporters who are committed to terms of trade besides timely delivery. These players have succeeded in bagging huge export orders keeping the traditional players at bay. ``The new group has been able to export over 15,000 tonnes in the past few months.'' said a leading exporter associated with STC.

So far the trade is concerned, players become extremely cautious. Several traders and manufacturers are facing cashcrunch, as a result dealers were reluctant to sell castorseeds for crushing oil, traders said. The manufactures especially the medium-sized ones are the most affected lot, they said.

Two leading exporters in Gujarat almost went bust and applied before the Board for Financial & Industrial Reconstruction (BIFR) to bail them out, while others are just out of the business.

The 15-member club is now stands reduced to five medium to big size players. While exports and producers lost heavily, traders too burned their fingers in cash and futures speculations.

Millers are operating at very low capacity, thanks to disparity between seed and oil prices.

The Outlook:

With the new season around the corner, overseas buyers are testing indian exporters. They are bidding around $850-$870 a tonne, FOB Kandla/ Mumbai, while Indian exporters are quoting around $890-$900. Exports are profitable above $880-$900 levels. At present most deals are on cash basis. Forwards are dead, as neither party is willing tocommit forward deals in the present circumstances.

Meanwhile an castor oil cargo recently shipped to Rotterdam by a Kandla based exporter was found adulterated with Palmolin. According to insiders, the cargo was bought by the `numero uno' global trader. Normally the exported oil is being shipped only after the surveyor agencies like Geo Chem certify the quality. In this particular shipment buyer didn't bothered to get such a certificate. What compelled him to buy the oil without quality certificate was his desperation to get quick delivery, said an analyst.

Buying operation of a large trader who bought the oil from a Kadi based sick company also seems strange. Another leading exporter's payment cycle got strectched to 35-40 days from 15-20 days, an indication of unusual trade practices.

Technical Outlook:

Trend reversal appear bullish. After a three week long consolidation, spot as well as futures gave bullish signal. The February contract rose to Rs 1,730 a tonne from the recent low of Rs1,648, close above Rs 1,695 at Ahmedabad Commodity Exchange. The futures showed a bullish upward break out from the `ascending triangle'. The five and 20-day moving average cross over and Stochastic indicators also generated a buy signal.

The next target seen at Rs 1,735, and there could be some resistance at that level. Closing above it, may take prices to Rs 1,785 a quintal. Parabolic SAR also indicates firmness. December futures also seen bullish. Spot castor seed prices closed around Rs 336 in the last week, technicals are more bullish in the spot market, as MACD turned positive in the daily chart.