The increases in Internet users translates into a compound annual growth rate of 56 per cent between 1997 and 2003, International Data Corp. said, compared with the firm's previous forecast of 47 per cent.

The expansion of the Internet is visible across the region, said Pete Hitchen, IDC's Asian-Pacific Internet research manager. Outside of FJapan, he sees the greatest growth opportunities in China, India and Sough Korea. IDC makes its forecasts based on sales of computers and user surveys.

By the end of this year, China will have about 3.7 million Internet users, or 17 per cent of the Internet population in the Asian-Pacific region outside Japan. IDC expects that number to jump to 7.2 million in a year, accounting for 22 per cent of the region's total online users. China will also surpass Australia by the end of 2000 to have most Internet users in the Asian-Pacific region outside Japan, according to IDC's projections.

China's online population will continue to grow, reaching population will continue to grow, reaching 33 million at the end of 2004, or 35 per cent of the region's wired population.

China's growth is fueled mainly by falling prices of devices that can access the Internet, as well as the government's efforts to get businesses and consumers online, Mr Hitchen said. The increase in localized Web content is also helping to bring more people online in China.

India is also expected to show strong growth in the next five years, expanding its share of the region's online population to 18 per cent at the end of 2004 from 4 per cent today, IDC predicts. Despite a relatively smaller market and recovering economy, South Korea also will outgrow most of the region, catching up with Australia in terms of Internet users by 2004, putting it in the third place after China and India.

The huge increases in Internet users won't necessarily translate into e-commerce revenue, however, at least not in China or India.

Although IDC estimates that e-commerce transactions in the region will reach a record in 2004, it expects spending from China and India to remain small. Per-capita income and spending in these two countries remains low compared with the rest of the region, Mr Hitchen noted. IDC sees China's e-commerce spending totaling $221.7 million in 2000, or only 4 per cent of the region's total spending. India's share in the Asian-Pacific region's e-commerce spending will be an even narrower 1 per cent next year. Internet users in more mature markets such as Australia and South Korea will be the main spenders online, accounting for 53 per cent and 11 per cent respectively of the region's total e-commerce spending this year. In 2000, Australian Internet users will spend close to $2.5 billion online, South Koreans will spend $886.8 million online.

--(The Asian Wall Street Journal)