While global consumption may be only 140,000 tonnes at 19.05 million tonnes from 18.91 million tonnes in the preceeding year. The opening stock for the current season, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) this season, will be slightly lower at 9.71 million tonnes, against 9.89 million tonnes at the start of the previous season.

Production, however, is expected to rise to 19.01 million tonnes from 18.55 million tonnes in the earlier season. While production in China, the world's largest producer is expected to fall this season to about four million tonnes from 4.5 million tonnes, there is likely tobe a matching increase in the USA to about 3.80 million tonnes from 3.03 million tonnes. Besides, Pakistan, India and Uzbekistan are expected to produce more than in the earlier season.

Thus the current season's global production of cotton is expected to be higher by 460,000 tonnes.

Almost until recently China used to keep about one year's requirements in stocks. Lately, it has changed its policy in this regard and proposes to offload substantial quantities of cotton this season to prune its inventories.

Thus despite its lower crop this season, China will be exporting much more cotton this season than in the last one. It is estimated that it will export this season about 300,000 tonnes of cotton this year against 147,000 tonnes in the previous season. On the other hand it will reduce its imports this season. Years ago when the Chinese showed interest in importing cotton from India, our industry used to object to sales to China on the ground that Indian cotton may thus help China in competing with ourcotton textiles in the overseas markets. Since then cotton scenario in China has undergone a sea-change.

It has emerged as the world's largest producer of cotton with fantastic yields of about 1000 kg per hectare. It has also emerged as a strong exporter of not only cotton, but also of cotton textiles. With cotton production of 4.60 million tonnes in 1998-99 it has left India far behind whose production in 1998-99 was placed at 2.710 tonnes.

With a booming textile industry, China consumed about 4.600 million tonnes of cotton last season, against 2.710 million tonnes by India. While India could with difficulty export negligible quantity of cotton in 1998-99, China could export about 147,000 tonnes and proposes to step up exports to 300,000 tonnes in the current season.

Very helpful policy adopted by the Chinese government towards cotton growers has helped that country to perform this miracle. As India lacks imaginative and pragmatic policies, its cotton yields rank amongst the lowest in the world withabout 301 kg per hectare.