"There may be a shortfall of Rs 40 billion-Rs 50 billion. It will be mainly due to some shortfall on the customs side but we will try to keep it to the minimum," SD Mohile, chairman of the Central Board of Excise and Customs, told a conference of economic editors.

Meanwhile, imports of oils and fats may rise to 4.7-4.9 million tonnes in 1999/00 (Oct/Sept) after an estimated 4.4 million in 1998/99 and 2.2 million in 1997/98, the Oil World newsletter said.

Domestic winter oilseeds crops, harvested from mid-Oct through December, would be down from the last season and many uncertainties clouded the outlook for the summer crops to be harvested in February/April, it said.At the same time, domestic demand was strong -- and was projected to continue -- as a result of income growth, low edible /oil prices and a large availability of imported oils.

While demand was currently undergoing a seasonal slowdown,it was still up from a year ago and very likely to recover from December of January onward.A largely unexpected governmental decision last week toleave import duties on edible oils unchanged would support domestic usage although it was bad news for local processors and importers who had bought at higher prices in the past.