The Development Research Centre study published in the China Securitiesnewspaper showed the real value of China's GDP in 2005 would be 1.53 percent higher than if Beijing had not joined the world trade body.

A leading private economist said his simulation projected a similar boost togross domestic product (GDP), but stressed that the biggest benefit to Chinawould be the rescue of Premier Zhu Rongji's embattled reform programme.

China's economy grew 7.8 per cent in 1998. The China Securities said thecountry would be able to achieve its 1999 economic growth target of sevenper cent. GDP expanded a year-on-year 7.4 per cent in the first nine monthsof 1999.

The think tank report was the latest pro-WTO blast, aimed at the manyChinese worried about losing their jobs, since US and Chinese tradenegotiators signed a bilateral agreement on Monday clearing a major hurdleto China's WTO entry.

In 2005, China's consumption was expected to be 0.58 per cent higher than ifChina had not joined the WTO, exports would be 26.9 per cent higher,investment would be 1.75 per cent higher and imports would be 25.8 per centhigher, it said.

The cabinet think tank said its forecast was based on benefits stemming fromthe WTO market access rules set under the Uruguay Round of global tradetalks concluded in 1993 plus China's recent major market-opening promises,it said.

China, which agreed to lower tariffs and ease restrictions on foreigninvestment in a broad array of sectors, must still conclude bilateralaccords with the European Union and eight other WTO members, includingCanada and Brazil.

Chief WTO negotiator Long Yongtu said China expected to complete its entryin the first half of next year.

"WTO is a badly, badly needed push from the outside," said Shawn Xu,research chief at China International Capital Corp (CICC), which forecastGDP growth would rise by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points after entry.

In a recent CICC study on the impact on China of WTO entry, Xu wrote thatlowering trade barriers would give Beijing authorities a stick to enforceindustrial restructuring programmes often ignored by local governments."The biggest gain is not from international trade, but in reviving economicreform that has lost steam in the last few years," Xu said.

The Development Research Centre said that seven years after WTO entry,textile employment would be up 23.6 per cent and in garments by 52.3 percent. Farm employment would be 3.6 per cent down and auto industry jobswould contract by 14.5 per cent.

It said urban incomes in the country would be 4.56 per cent higher in 2005than if China stayed outside the WTO while rural incomes would 2.05 per centlower as farmers were hit by cheaper imports.

CICC's Xu said the transfer of jobs under WTO-driven competition would be"very positive in the long term" because it would enable China to exploitits comparative advantages.

"In theory, some sectors should create more jobs, while others lose jobs,but the transition could be painful," he said.

"You cannot just put a farmer in a factory and ask him to assemblecomputers."