With China signing the protracted agreement opening up its market to theUnited States, the way has been paved for its cherished entry into the WorldTrade Organisation (WTO). China will have to sign similar agreements withthe EU and other members of the global trade body on identical terms. Itwill have to offer them market access in line with that accorded to the US.The tricky issue will be the reciprocal demands China will make upondeveloping countries in particular. But note that China's exports to thedeveloping countries are marginal; its trade surplus comes in the main fromthe first world, led by the US. Even so, much will depend on whether the UShas accorded China the developing country status or not; if not, China will,sooner or later, become indifferent to the problems and demands ofdeveloping countries. This may turn out to be a sweeping judgment. Despiteits prosperity, China has yet to cope with reform-induced unemployment,which is large.
It will not be easy to push China around for low wages (relative to theFirst World) or for environmental-shortcomings, a consequence ofindustrialisation at breakneck speed. China shares many problems with poorernations and it will not be in a hurry to break ranks; it too will have toface pressure from the highly industrialised countries.
Whether China will quickly sew up trade agreements with other members of WTOin time for the Seattle summit, which opens on November 30, may not bestrictly material. China has crossed the barrier to its entry into WTO; thiswill have to be given de facto recognition at Seattle. It will not do tohold the world's third largest trading nation on the sidelines. The suddenresolution of China-US talks on market access on November 15- after reportsthat the US trade representative, Charlene Barshefsky, was ready to returnto Washington- was not mere happenstance.
China's eagerness to participate in the Seattle round doubtless played arole; the US, it is no secret, was hardly indifferent to Chinese overtures,especially after President Jiang Zemin, who oversees the WTO negotiations,advocated his case with President Clinton at Auckland early this autumn.
Though the agreement is all about China giving market access to the US, as acountry enjoying trade surplus, it has a vital stake in using internationaltrade as an engine of growth. Large forex reserves enable China to widenimports which, in turn, should help it to restructure the economy and gainthe competitive edge. Though India is in a different league, pressures willmount on it to liberalise: the US-China agreement will cast its shadow onIndia's stance at Seattle.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.