Few people are clear about what lies ahead. New businesses sprout every day and most of them are shots in the dark. Primarily because there are very few concrete figures to back up the ideas.

Which is why two sets of figures make for interesting reading. One from Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC). The other from International Data Corporation (IDC).

PwC reckons that e-commerce transactions in India will breach the Rs 40,000 crore mark by 2003. Given existing realities, it looks an improbable figure. But Arvind Mahajan of PwC has an answer.

"Imagine the kind of figures that come into play if even two or three corporates like HLL, ITC and Telco put their suppliers and distributors into the online environment," he says.

It is a fair argument. Because corporate India is increasingly looking at anything in sight that may allowhealthier bottomlines. And if the answers lie in e-commerce, so be it. The caveat being, "not right now."

The PwC survey revealed an interesting mix of responses. Most were candid enough to indicate that right now, investments in e-business was not on top of their investment priorities.

Instead, what bothers most respondents right now are problems associated with Y2K compliance. It is followed closely by brand building exercises and developing new products.

PwC believes that e-business is at the bottom of investment priorities because "executives have not yet realised the full potential of e-business." Only 28 per cent reckoned that e-business was a source of competitive advantage.

Interestingly though, 46 per cent of the respondents confessed that they believed e-business would impact their businesses significantly while 39 per cent indicated a moderate impact. Only 2 per cent reckoned their business interests would remain isolated from these developments.

The report reveals that the most importantdrivers that propel businesses to look at e-business were customer information, geographic reach and cost reduction.

What bothers managements however, are issues like communication infrastructure and the absence of legislation.

All said and done though, over 30 per cent of the executives surveyed are convinced that in five years, more than 20 per cent of their revenues would come in through e-business.

The maximum impact, the report concludes, will be witnessed in sectors like financial services, information, entertainment and retailing.

While corporate India is still grappling with the challenges e-commerce poses, retail India, is plunging headlong into cyberspace. Perhaps, a shot in the dark. Like Mahajan says, "It's a `sexy' business to be in."

He points out there is an element of glamour involved in the whole idea, which in turn, is played up by the media. After all, how many people can think of success stories of the kind the internet provides.

Which is why, in spite of the fact that India isranked 52 in the Global Competitiveness Report, there are no dearth of ideas. Sudhir Sethi, director at Walden India Investment Group, a venture capital firm, points out that he receives at least one business plan every day. All of last year, he got only 97 of them.

The spirit is reflected in projections made by IDC. It estimates, that personal or retail spending on the internet in India will grow at rate of 257 per cent. What it means is that the $11.2 million in online revenues during 1999, will look like peanuts when it touches $1,264.7 million in 2003.Most of this spending will take place in the form of software purchases, subscriptions and travel.

All of this makes for interesting reading. More importantly, it is just the kind of figures that can convince an entrepreneur to get into the business. But it's got to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Sethi says, "What I look out for are compelling ideas."
Inherent to what he says is a reality. That business models which have worked in North America, maynot work in India. Therefore, while selling books on the internet may be a good idea there, IDC indicates only 10 per cent of online spending will take place in this segment.

And that is not a big market to compete, considering the number of players who want to sell books on the web.

Instead, Sethi says, he would be more interested in a project which tries to solve commonplace problems. "How about an online solution that takes care of people's electricity bills. That's what I call a compelling idea," he says.There are not too many compelling ideas to go by though. It's still in the making. In the meantime though, India will see a proliferation of websites that are clones of successful counterparts in the Western world. Not many of them will survive. The ones that do, will cater to an elite audience. The real winners are yet to emerge. They are still in the making. Waiting, watching, that the infrastructure falls into place. And hoping that nothing can stop an idea whose time has come.