Coffee farmers, anxiously looking to the skies since September for signs of rain to trigger and maintain flowerings, now say that the stress in some areas is beyond doubt. This has been the story for some weeks, with agronomists and growers regularly issuing percentages of how much coffee they think they have already lost from the 2000/01 crop.

Late last month, the National Coffee Council (CNC) issued a preliminary estimate on possible losses, pegging potential damage to new crop flowerings in southern Minas Gerais at up to 40 per cent and up to 30 percent in Sao Paulo's growing areas. Other agronomists, however, say it is still too early to talk of quantifiable damage to potential crop production, although most are agreed that losses have certainly occurred. "We are noticing some plants returning to quite serious stress conditions due to the small amount of rain which has fallen," said Cesar Augusto Candiano, agronomist at the Sao Sebastiao do Paraiso co-operative in southwest Minas Gerais. "From now, there's a strong (moisture) demand which is much greater now for fruits, new leaves and new branches," he said.

Many of Brazil's coffee plantations entered the critical flowering period virtually starved of soil moisture with a number of stressed or defoliated trees. This left trees in urgent need of regular and abundant rains.

Instead, the low volumes of rain have failed to prevent visible stress on many trees and farmers are quick to cite a whole series of problems caused by the soil moisture deficit. These include aborted flowers, premature openingof flowers before their complete formation and a blackening of "Chumbinho" -- the coffee bean in its first stages of germination.

"The second flowering is now practically complete...but there have been a lot of problems and in many cases we've been seeing "estrelinhas"...not everywhere, but this has happened," Candiano said. Estrelinha, the Portuguese for "little star", refers to flowers which open before they have properly formed on the coffee tree, and are smaller than normal as a consequence. "They are flowers which without a doubt are not going to bear fruit...and this hot weather is also one of the factors causing the "Estrelinhas", along with the low moisture." Other growing areas are reporting similar field problems.

The Cerrado, a quality Arabica-growing zone located in the western portion of Minas Gerais state, has been often mentioned in recent weeks as being one of the worst-affected areas, only seeing limited and late spring rains. Farmers in the region say the stop-start-stop nature of therainfall had been counterproductive to flowering, as what the soil really needed was consistent drenching. Some burning of new buds by the hot October sun had also been seen, they said.

"The last rains were last week, with a reasonable (volume) average but then the rain disappeared and it's hot again," said Santos Bitencur of the Association of Cerrado Coffee Growers (Caccer). "That rain caused the second flowering but if it doesn't rain again, it's not going to be good. The first is a smaller flowering...and its Chumbinhos are falling off," he said.

Brazilian meteorologist Somar has forecast showers for Parana and Sao Paulo states, and also the southern and Cerrado regions of Minas Gerais, over the next few days. The most significant rain on the weekend would be in Bahia state and also the Zon da Mata growing strip along the border of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro states, Somar said.

In Sao Paulo, farmers said the erratic rains meant that some buds had formed but not opened, while others had nochance of opening at all because they had been burnt by the sun as Brazil enters its summer period. Some areas are awaiting a minor third flowering, while others -- such as the Cerrado -- say flowerings may now be over. Flowerings which are not uniform, they say, make for less coffee, lower quality and an unwelcome variation in bean size. "There's been rain but not in all the region's areas...and some of the buds haven't even opened," said Osorio Faquini, agronomist at the Garca co-operative in western Sao Paulo. "Some have also been burnt by the sun so they won't open at all," he said. "