In polyester yarn, bearish international trend on the back of sharp drop in the crude price to below 10 dollars had exerted pressure on the local market for most part of the year. Besides, cloth production also remained at a low side due to demand and other constraints.

At one stage, the production in Bhiwandi powerlooms in July had gone down by as much as 65 per cent in the wake of intensive search by the excise department. This had resulted into the yarn price remaining depressed. Thus, grey first quality of medium-sized units 80dn roto set had ruled at Rs 80-82, weft at Rs 78-79, 150dn weft at Rs 60-62 during January.

Subsequently, the price started to rally on improving demand. The sharp recovery in crude price to around 23 dollars pushed up the input cost, resulting into hardening of international price. This gave the local spinners theopportunity to raise the price.

This had echoed on the market price. However, with no back-up from demand, the market could not hold on fully to the gains which actually were the adjustments due to increased cost of production.

Thus, 80dn roto ended the year at Rs 93-94, weft at Rs 87-88 and 150dn weft at Rs 74-75. 80/1000dn and 80/1400dn price gained Rs 25 to 30 at Rs 135 and at Rs 140-142 respectively only due to exceptional circumstances of sharpdrop in the supply following closure of two leading units.

Viscose filament yarn fine counts lost Rs 25 to 30 while coarse were down by Rs 10 to 15. Bright cones first quality Century Rayon 150dn ended at Rs 196, 120dn at Rs 205, 100dn at Rs 220 and 75dn at Rs 252.180dn, 450dn and 600dn ruled at Rs 186, at Rs 140 and at Rs 138 respectively. 120dn dull cones fell from Rs 253 to Rs 217.

Nylon yarn 15/1/0dn Shreelon lost Rs 20 at Rs 245. But 20/1/0dn Gujnil at Rs 230 improved by Rs 5 and 30/1/0dn by Rs 20 at Rs 310 due to higher cost of production.

In cottonyarn, barring some tightness in the availability of fine counts occasionally, the overall situation remained lack-lustre due to ample raw cotton supply in the wake of good domestic crop and imports and stiff competition from the bearish trend in synthetics.

The prospects for the new year remained hazy in view of supply expected to remain comfortable while demand for cloth likely to be hit by general inflation.

Grains satisfactory
SY 2055, generally, was satisfactory for the grains market. The supply of most of the items remained satisfactory. However, an element of speculative activity that has crept into the pulses trade had caused occasional ripples in the market.

The supply of rice during SY 2055 remained comfortable which had kept the price movement in a reasonable band for qualities mass consumed. Thus, SLO ruled at Rs 1100-1200 as against the last year Diwali level of Rs 1125-1150 a quintal. Likewise, AP Kattar ruled at Rs 1050-1100 as against Rs 1075-1125 and Perimal superior at Rs1250-1300 as against Rs 1400-1500. Gujarat-17, ruled at Rs 1800-2000,up from Rs 1600-1700.

The wheat production had reached a record level last year. This,coupled with imports had kept the supply line virtually flush during the year gone by. The price, however, ruled higher in average qualities due to record procurement by the government as also to increased costs. Thus, wheat milling deshi ruled at Rs 775 as against Rs 705-710 prevailing during previous Diwali.

Hike in the transportation costs and supply constraints artificially caused due to transporters' indefinite strike also contributed to the rise in the price. Among others wheat Sonaklyan at Rs 825, 496 at Rs 875-881, MP 147 Rs 900-925 and Sarbati at Rs 925-1400 ended more or less steady.

The insufficient rains in Gujarat had caused some concern for the new year. However, with the area receiving rains towards the fag end of the season, the prospects have again brightened for the production in the region. The overall supply was likely to remainnormal. Hence no pressure was expected on price on supply count.

Production of coarse grains was around 24.72 million tonnes last year. There was occasional pressure on the price of jowar and to some extent on bajra. The production of coarse grains during 1999-2000 kharif season was estimated lower at 22.30 million tonnes in view of insufficient rains. This would exert some pressure on the price in the new year.

The pulses production during previous season was 6.11 million tonnes. With availability significantly beefed up by imports, the supply remained, by and large, satisfactory. However, imports at times remained on the low side due to uneconomic domestic prices and this used to create temporary lacunae in supply.

This situation was time and again exploited by the speculative elements giving disconcerting jerks and jolts to the market. However, the price of most of the items ruled noticeably lower at the end of year as compared to the SY 2054 level.

Thus, green peas USA ruled at Rs 1,325 asagainst Rs 1,600-1,625, tur Myanmar at Rs 1,800 (it had touched a low of Rs 1800) as against Rs 2,250-2,300, rajma chitra at Rs 1,900-1,950 as against Rs 2,500-2,600 and rajma red at Rs 1,800-1,850 as against Rs 2,250.

Urad price had slumped from 1,775-1,800 to Rs 1,600 but rallied on decline in domestic production to Rs 2000-2025. Kabuli gram,generally, also ruled cheaper by Rs 200 to 300. B-2 were quoted at Rs 2900-3000 and C-2 at Rs 2000-2500. A-2 ruled steady at Rs 3600-4100.

The pulses production in 1999-2000 season was placed lower at 5.57 million tonnes. However, with import pipeline open, necessary buffer would be available to the price level.

Sugar beneficial
SY 2055 remained beneficial for the sugar consumer due to high domestic output and almost continuous imports. However, for the domestic sugar industry, unbridled inflow of cheap foreign material created a serious problem, depriving them of a level playing field.

Sugar production in the 1998-99 (October-September) was up at155.50 lakh tonnes as against 128.50 lakh during the earlier period. Imports during respective periods were 10.05 lakh tonnes and 9.25 lakh tonnes respectively. Thus, the total availability in the 1998-99 was higher at 165.55 lakh tonnes as compared to 137.75 lakh tonnes in the previous year.

With consumption remaining almost steady, the abundant supply exerted pressure on the price. Importers, not coming under the stock and sales regulatory regime like the domestic producers continued to unload on the market at will affecting the price level.

Devaluation of the Brazilian currency and lowering of the price by the other exporting countries neutralised to a large extent the protection of import duty to the domestic industry.

Thus, the price level, generally, remained consumer friendly throughout the year except for some short uptrend due to transporters' strike. M-30 were placed at Rs 1,460-1,525 as against SY 2054 Diwali level of Rs 1,465-1,475 a quintal ex-godown. Likewise, S-30 ruled at Rs 1,422-1,470as against Rs 1,440-1,460.

Mill delivery rates were down from Rs 1,415-1,425 to Rs 1,365-1,375 for M-30. For S-30 it declined down from Rs 1,390-1,405 to Rs 1,340-1,350 in Kolhapur line.

With the production in the new season reported to be quite sizable, trade would be depressed further if imports continued to be mantained.

Cotton depressed
Generally, depressed conditions were witnessed in the cotton market during SY 2055 due to increased supply, coupled with low demand.

During cotton year 1998-99 (Oct-Sept) the total availability rose to 201 lakh bales ( 170 kg each) from the previous year level of 192.51 lakh tonnes. This was because of higher production of 163 lakh bales and imports of 8 lakh bales.The year had opened with a carryover inventory of 30 lakh bales.

In 1997-98, cotton year had resumed with a carryover of 30.38 lakh bales. With the crop of 158 lakh tonnes and imports of 4.13 lakh tonnes, the total supply was 192.51 lakh bales.

The 1998-99 also witnessed a drop of one lakhbales in outgo. Domestic demand remained by and large, restricted due to sluggishness in yarn and fabrics business as also to competition from cheaper polyester. Low international price and poor quality affected exports.

The total outgo in the year (previous year figures in bracket) was down to 161.50 lakh bales (162.51). Mill consumption was 145.50 (143.24), small scale requirements 6 (6.54), non-mill use 9 (9.23) and exports at 1 (3.50) lakh bales.This left a closing stock to be carried over in 1999-2000 year at 39.50 (30.00) lakh tonnes.

The price, naturally, ruled weak throughout the year. The market had looked up for very brief period during the end of the year as insufficient rains in Gujarat had caused concern for the crop there which had influenced the sentiment.

However, subsequent late rains in the region has changed the crop picture and the new year is ushering into an another period of abundant supply. Preliminary estimate placed the 1999-2000 crop at over 167 lakh bales.The price, as aresult, has turned bearish. Bengal Deshi roller-ginned dipped from Rs 1,315-1,360 to Rs 1,210-1,250 and J-34 saw-ginned from Rs 1790-1860 to Rs 1505-1730 a maund spot. V-797 had dropped down from Rs 15,400-15,700 to Rs 12,800-12,900 but rallied partially on support to Rs 13,800-14,000. Sanker declined from Rs 20,300-20,600 to Rs 18,000-19,000 a candy.

The second bumper crop, weak international market and none-too-happy situation of the textile industry distinctly indicate the going tough for the cotton trade in the new year also.