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Cartel's 90% compliance may see crude prices firm up again -- Opec minister 

REUTERS  
Dubai/London, Nov 7: Oman's oil minister last week said that OPEC adherence to output cuts was around 90 per cent.

"This was the best level of compliance in the history of the cartel," Oil Minister Mohammad bin Hamad Seif-al-Remhi was quoted as saying to a newspaper in Dubai.

The oil minsiter said he expected oil prices to rise between 50 cents and $1 in the coming months because of winter demand.

The IPE December/January Brent spread also sprang higher over the week and hovered at more than 70 cents on Friday, compared to 35 cents seen earlier in the seek and an average of about 24 cents since the beginning of October. But the fears that OPEC might be starting to slacken were allayed by a recent preport showing comliance still high at 85 per cent in October. The oil minister now says the compliance is 90 per cent.

After more than doubling since a March agreemnet by oil producers to slash a further three million barrels from daily output, crude prices dropped sharply last month on signs thatproduction was creeping back up.

Meanwhile, oil dealers last on Friday seemed to be at a loss to explain how circumstances conspired last week to throw benchmark crude oil futures in London and New Yourk out of kilter again.

The two markets -- IPE and NYMEX -- are a little bit dislocated at the moment, traders said.

Gains on the London's IPE December Brent crude futures far outstripped the front month US light crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, eliminating the normal NYMEX premium completely at times on Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday the spread had returned to about 25 cents, still narrow given the premium in quality usually attached to NYMEX light crude.

Among the reasons some dealers listed was strong buying pressure in December Brent futures, apparently from a major worried about difficulties in Nigera.Among reasons for general weakness in oil, traders say steady weekly group stock data and lack of buying interest as many refiners prepare to run down their crude inventoriesstock that is ahead of the year-end, thereby decreasing their tax assessments.

Some of the 40 per cent run-up in Dated Brent premiums last week reflected the fact that most North Sea grades were cleared out for the near future, and apart from Brent there was little prompt oil being shown.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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