After the 150-point crash last Friday, brokers were optimistic of a revival of sorts that would hold the market. That proved elusive on Monday when trading resumed. The Sensex opened at 4444.56 points, and improved to 4500.36 points, from where it took a vertical dip touching a low of 4267.23 before closing at 4270.74 points.

With fundamentals continuing to be positive, the 11.34 per cent wipe out in values over the last six sessions is largely seen as a technical one led by huge positions. Market players expected some more unwinding to take place. ``The panic in the market still persits but I think we can see some revival tomorrow afternoon. For the next four to six weeks, we expect the Sensex to trade between 4200 to 4600 level,'' said Hiten Sampat at Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services.

Arun Kejriwal of Woodstock Securities sees the mood turning cautiously bearish ``with 65 per cent to 70 per cent of the damage done today. Recovery is another week away.'' He expects the markets to consolidate as most players would like to test the waters ahead of Diwali and the short-trading week that will follow.

According to Sampat, ``It's the small operators and the retail investors who are currently burning their fingers. One of the prime indicators is the low volume of trade on the bourses despite such massive fall during the last few days.'' On Monday, total turnover on the BSE was Rs 1,856.37 crore, substantially lower than the recent average of Rs 3,000 crore.

That itself is a sign of a flat market ahead even as many brokers and fund managers feel that FII selling has peaked out. Last Friday FIIs had pulled out Rs 57 crore. Simon Holdsworth of ITC Threadneedle Asset Management attributes the fall to speculative unwinding. ``We remain positive over a 12-month period, though we expect the volatility to continue till January,'' he points out.

Kejriwal takes a closer look at the numbers and says that the net outstanding position is down by about Rs 285 crore to Rs 2,557 crore on Monday. Of this, Rs 100 crore is due to the damage done by the price fall, while the rest is due to liquidation. The usual shifting to NSE has not taken place as prices on NSE were higher than those of BSE. ``Optimism has given way to cautious pessimism and the shift to FMCG stocks is anticipated.''

The market fall could have been more than 250 points had Hindustan Lever not remained firm. Hindustan Lever which represents around 20 per cent was unchanged at Rs 2,308, indicating that the shift has started taking place.

``At the current levels, for delivery-based trading, FMCG stocks seem to be the best bets,'' points out Sampat of Parag Parikh.

``Investors, who have the patience to hold on to stocks, can buy tomorrow after the initial fall in the morning session. However, in case it breaks the support level of 4090, they should wait,'' says Ambareesh Baliga at Kotak Securities.

``Going by Sebi's FII investment figures, it is quite clear thet the FIIs have been booking profit from August onwards and it looks they are almost close to their year-end ritual. So I don't see much FII outflow till the current year ends,'' says VVLN Shahstry at Khandwala Securities. The fundamentals have not changed overnight, so it could be the right time for delivery-based buying, he adds.