It is widely believed that the Bank of England (BoE) was behind gold's latest decline to below the $290 per ounce mark. Rumours persist that the BoE wanted the yellow metal below the $300 per ounce mark to help the beleaguered Ghananian Ashanti Gold Mine. It is said that the collapse of Ashanti would have resulted in the Ghananian economy rolling over. Thus, necessitating a bail-out package from Britain. Probably, pushing down gold prices was far more easier and convenient for all parties.

However, while some producers rejoiced gold's fall to near $286 per ounce in Asia, others wanted the yellow metal to move higher. Thus, the volatility in prices, in fact, buyback by Australian producers was said to have been instrumental in bringing back gold prices near the $300 per ounce region.

With lease rates below the one per cent levels, there is no tightening in bullion markets. But analysts expect fundamentals to hold sway after the current choppy waters calm down. Experts predict gold to be in the $325 per ounce region in the next year. Even though short-term, the markets are uncertain, most believe that in the longer-term gold is likely to see more surges than declines.

But for that, the yellow metal would have to depend on the much touted `bubble theory' of US stock markets. Ironically, in the last one week, the Dow has soared from near 10,000 to well over 10,700 in spite of a warning by the US Fed chief. In the meantime, the stock markets brushed aside the 70th anniversary of the `Great Depression of 1929' and even the infamous October effect.

In fact, Alan Greenspan has now conceded that US technology stocks are firmly entrenched. Although he still expects a slowdown, he is not certain when. Yet, many believe that the red light for the stock markets would come before the year end. Most expect the Y2K fears to trigger an upheaval in US markets.

Gold awaits to benefit from the resultant turmoil.

Silver tagged along with gold but ended slightly higher at US cents 529 per ounce, while gold was just below the $300 per ounce mark at $299.10 per ounce. But platinum was robust near $420 per ounce and palladium firm near $390 per ounce. In the domestic markets, buyers waited even as gold crashed in the international markets. They returned only when gold recovered, realising that gold would not fall further. Standard gold declined from Rs.4,710 per 10 gms to Rs.4,640 per 10 gms before closing at Rs.4,645 per 10 gm. Silver .999 recovered from Rs.8,145 per kg to Rs.8,205 per kg before closing at Rs.8,140 per kg (gold and silver, Mumbai, Saturday prices).

Meanwhile, according to reports, red-tapism in Russia has opened a window for duty-free imports of aluminium, ferrous and precious metals. On April 28, 1999, Russia had imposed a 5 per cent export duty on the above mentioned goods for six months.

However, a new notification is yet to see the light of the day. Even though it is expected that gold would be exempted from the duty, this window for free exports could be open for even as long as week. Thus, Russia with annual production of gold aggregating 100-115 tonnes is ripe for exports.

But, it is comforting to know that at present the only gold available for exports is with the Russian Central Bank. However, with gold high, the economy in dire straits and in a country where Boris Yeltsin changes prime ministers at the drop of a hat, `Anything is possible'.