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Will the Q1 turnarounds deliver this time too?
Nandita Datta
New Delhi, Oct 25: It's results time again and all eyes are focussed on the corporate scorecard. For a market, which is known to reward growth, turnarounds are naturally the first to be lapped up by punters. In the last two years, most corporates fell prey to the economic recession and turnarounds were few and far between. For those who did, profits were more a result of cost-cutting rather than a rise in sales. With the new fiscal ushering in hopes of a revival, expectations ran high. For the first time in two years, the market looked beyond the IT, pharma and MNC tag. The first-quarter, itself, threw up a host of turnaround cases and the "back-in-the-black" list included hitherto beleaguered sectors like cement, automobiles, textiles, chemicals and finance.With the second-quarter results pouring in, marketmen are keenly awaiting the fate of the first-quarter turnarounds. Will it be twice lucky for these firms or will the first-quarter profits prove to be a mere flash in the pan? Three Q1 turnarounds have, so far, announced their results. And, the winners are -- Hinduja group company Ennore Foundries and Hero Motors group company Gujarat Cycles -- who have sustained their first-quarter profits. With improved demand from Ashok Leyand, Ennore Foundries has posted a first-half net profit of Rs 2.39 crore compared to a loss of Rs 7.33 crore in the corresponding period last year. The company is expected to end the year with a net profit of Rs 4-5 crore. A change in Gujarat Cycles Ltd's profile -- from bicycles to auto components -- has helped sustain the profits in the second-quarter. In the first-half, Gujarat Cycles has earned a profit of Rs 1.01 crore against a loss of Rs 3.5 crore in the corresponding period last year. The company is likely to end the fiscal with a profit of over Rs 2 crore. It's not surprising, therefore, that the stock of these two turnaround cases are currently quoting at their highs. With the fortunes of these firms closely linked to the group flagship, their stocks will follow a similar pattern. With both Ashok Leyland and Hero Honda gearing up for better times, the two ancillary companies are worthy of a second look. On the other hand, Prism Cement has slipped back into the red after earning a profit in the first quarter has and has been given a thumbs down by the market. In the second-quarter, the company has incurred a loss of Rs 6.94 crore. The non-sustainability of its Q1 profit has seen the stock falling by over 16 per cent in last trading session on BSE. Of the other Q1 turnarounds who are yet to announce their results, one sure bet is Hikal Chemicals. The company, which is a sole producer of thiabendazole, is looking at earnings of Rs 100 crore every year from an outsourcing agreement with Merck & Co. Other consistent performers are likely to be Amforge Industries, Spentex Industries and Odyssey Video. The first on account of the improved conditions in the forging industry and the second as a result of better demand for yarn abroad. Odyssey Video is also likely to wipe out its losses this fiscal thanks to the resurgence for advertising and corporate films. Balmer Lawrie Van Leer and Suryalata Spinning Mills shouldalso be in a position to sustain their Q1 profits, while Orient Abrasives should do well because of a pick-up in demand from its main user industries -- automobiles. Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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