Corporate Results of over 2500 companies Saturday, October 23, 1999
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Think Tank
This week we focus on a complete analysis of the
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Outlook remains positive for Sensex; Action likely in side counters 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
OCTOBER 22: Last week, the Sensex showed a 101 points fall over its previous week's close of 4884 points. The main culprit for this fall have been heavy weights like HCL, Infosys, NIIT, Ranbaxy and ITC. All these account for nearly 40 per cent of the Sensex weightage, and when the 40 per cent component of the Sensex show an average fall of over 8 per cent, a two-per cent fall in the Sensex is not very surprising.

During the last week, HLL, Infosys, ITC and Ranbaxy have lost more than 8 per cent. NIIT also contributed significanly, with a huge drop of over 20 per cent last week. However, Reliance and SBI provided some help. The fall could have been severe had these stocks not remained strong. For the future, among the heavy weights, ITC is near its support levels. HLL is weak, and may remain depressed. Similar is the position of Infosys, NIIT, and Ranbaxy. Reliance is promising. SBI is good at the current levels but uptrend is likely to accelerate above Rs 262.

Overall, the outlook for the Sensex does not appear very bearish. In the short-run, for a healthy market, the stock should not break the Friday's low which was 4755 points. For medium-to-long term prespective, the Sensex has a support at 4627 points. The Sensex should remain above this level in the future, and the chances for that are very bright. On the upper side, the Sensex has a resistance at 4990 level.

Even if the Sensex remains weak on account of weak heavy weights, the side counters would continue to offer good investment opportunity for the traders as well as investors.

The software sector has been under selling pressure in the last two days. The fall was led by Satyam Computers, and the rest of gang joined in. The fall in the software stock is likely to slowdown in the coming days. A bottom out for the software stocks in the next three days is also likely. As for the pharma sector, the fall is likely to last for some more time, and fresh investment can be avoided at this juncture. Dr.Reddy' Lab, Smithkline Beecham Pharma, Ranbaxy Labs, Glaxo, and E Merck, all of them have broken their short-term support levels which is a negative signal.

The situation for the cement sector is not as bad. The stocks from this sector performed well in the last few days. ACC, L&T, Gujarat Ambuja and India Cements have been the star performers. The price pattern suggest that the rally is likely to continue for few more days.

The outlook for the steel sector is promosing. Two main stocks from this sector, Tisco, and Sail have remained strong, and are expected to move up further. Tisco has a resistance a minor resistance at Rs 166, and the next resistance for the stock is at Rs 175.

Hipolin

Hipolin has done exceedingly well in the last few weeks. The stock is all set to touch a 3-year high. The stock has managed to cross all its medium term resistance level, and faces no resistance in the near future. The volume chart has also been positive. One can take a long position at the current level, and on every decline. The stop loss for long position should be at Rs 17.

Sundram Fasteners

Sundram Fasteners' stock has touched an all-time high on Friday. In this process, it has crossed all its long-term resistance levels, and has entered into a virgin territory which is an excellent news for its technical position. Although the stock is not very liquid, the price chart points toward a bullish outlook. One can take a long position at the current level for medium term gains. The stop should be used at Rs 650 level.

Siemens

Siemens has also done very well in the recent past. The stock has crossed it medium term resistance levels and is poised for a sharp uptrend. The stock had a minor resistance at Rs 41 which it crossed without much of effort. The stock can be bought for short-term gains. The stop loss for long position is at Rs 379. The resistance level for the stock is far from the current level which leaves ample room for appreciation.

Raymond

For the last three months, Raymond has been posting higher bottoms, indicating an underlying strength of the stock. The consolidation period seems to be over as the stock has managed to cross its short-term resistance of Rs 92. This is nothing but a hint towards a bullish outlook. For short-term traders/investors, long positions can be taken at the current levels with a stop loss of Rs 85. On the upper side, it would face a minor resistance at Rs 101. The rally is likely to accelerate above this level.

Atlas Copco

Atlas Copco's price chart appears extremely bullish. The stock has moved above its medium term resistance without any effort. Meanwhile, trading volume have also shown a sharp jump. Two important resistance levels of Rs 238, and Rs 270 respectively have been crossed, and the stock is heading for its long-term resistance of Rs 323. The rally till this level is likely to be smooth. One can take a long position at the current level with a stop loss of Rs 250.

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