It is easy for the economist to talk about prudent fiscal and economic policies; it is equally difficult for the politician to pursue them. Especially, when the politician happens to be in Atal Bihari Vajpayee's shoes. He has to balance a number of factors and deal with conflicting demands and pressures. The tight-rope walk will begin with distribution of ministries, particularly the plum ones. Besides, he can ill-afford to ignore region-specific demands. Some of these can be nerve-wrecking; for instance, how to placate DMK without antagonising the JD(U) in Karnataka?Further, prudence and policy demand revising of petroleum prices according to international prices. But this is not likely to be appreciated by the Akalis and Om Prakash Chautala, who are largely supported by farmers. They have already criticised the recent hike in diesel prices.
Fortunately for Vajpayee, NDA (unlike the United Front under HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral) does not have much ideological baggage to carry. Even socialists like George Fernandes seem to be reconciled to the economic realities of the post-liberalisation era. Following is the economic agenda of BJP's principal allies compiled by TEAM FE:
TELUGU DESAM PARTY
The TDP government in Andhra Pradesh, which has carried out major reforms in the state, is in fact expected to press the Centre for accelerations of the reforms process on various fronts. The state government, as part of its own reform agenda, has been working towards cutting down subsidies on power, farm inputs and other aspects and is, therefore, not expected harrass the Centre on these counts.
Though he is keeping his cards close to his chest, if at all Naidu decides to join an NDA government at the Centre, he is expected to pitch for at least four berths in the Cabinet. Going by the heavy economic and business agenda Naidu has set for himself for the coming months, party sources say he is likely to ask either for the industries or power portfolios apart from a MoS berth in the ministry of finance.
JANATA DAL (U)
The Vajpayee government may not find it easy to carry the JD (U) on its reform agenda, judging by the party's past pronouncements. Issues like insurance sector reforms and patents are likely to be opposed by the party as it did in its earlier incarnation. As erstwhile JD leader, Sharad Yadav, for example, had opposed tooth and nail bills on insurance and patents saying it would amount to selling the country's interests to multinationals.How Vajpayee will reconcile their interests on these issues in not clear at the moment.
Similarly, JD(U) is also likely to oppose the diesel price hike. The JD(U) vote bank is mainly in the countryside where agriculture is the main occupation. It cannot afford to annoy the electorate. The same holds true in the case of fertilizer subsidy. It cannot close its eyes to reduction of subsidies in the farm sector.
As for government formation, Vajpayee may have to bear the pressure from the JD(U), specially because it has stalwarts like Sharad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, apart from Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes.
INDIAN NATIONAL LOK DAL
A massive victory in Haryana has catapulted chief minister OP Chauthala to a position of prominence in national politics. His immediate agenda would be roll back of diesel prices to keep his constituency (farming community) happy. The party had earlier fought for larger subsidy on fertilizers. It would keep up the pressure on this count too.
As regards reforms, including the controversial insurance bill and patents, INLD is likely to go along with BJP. Party sources said it was not interested in creating roadblocks to reforms. But the reforms should not hurt farmers and the agriculture in general, these sources added.
Earlier, however, when Chauthala was part of the United Front, he had expressed himself against reckless reforms jeopardising the interest of the country. But that was part of the overall strategy of most of the UF partners, including the left.
As for the party's participation in central government, the INLD is bound to demand a key berth like agriculture. More so because Vajpayee had given the portfolio to Akali Dal in 1998.
SHIROMANI AKALI DAL
The dismal performance of SAD (it has won only two Lok Sabha seats) has lowered the morale of the party. Stalwart like agriculture minister and former chief minister Surjit Singh Barnala have been defeated. SAD will be entirely at the mercy of Prime Minister Vajpayee. Hence, it is unlikely to hurt the NDA interests on issues like the reforms. In any case, SAD had not put obstacles in areas like insurance or patents.
The party is bound to oppose the raise in diesel prices as its main constituent, the farmers, have been adversely affected. Like the INLD, the Akali Dal has also voiced its opposition to the recent price hike on diesel. Similarly, the party is sure to oppose any measure towards reduction of fertiliser subsidy or subsidy to the farm sector in general.
The Prime Minister is unlikely to face any pressure on ministerial berth from the SAD. The party may, however, get one MoS level portfolio at the very best.
DRAVIDA MUNNETRA KAZHAGAM:
The party prefers continuity in the reforms process. At the state level, DMK has given thrust to infrastructure, privatisation of power generation and promotion of investment. Unlike AIADMK, DMK leadership has no compulsions. If at all, the party may voice its opposition on some issues, like Cauvery water dispute. This issue may turn out to be a test for NDA unity especially when the Congress is set to form the government in Karnataka. The DMK will participate in the government but is unlikely to make any demands pressing demands. PMK & MDMK: These two parties are largely on the same turf a DMK. With their rural bases, they are unlikely to raise opposition to matters that do not concern Tamil Nadu directly. Though they prefer selective reforms, no significant opposition is expected from them as many political observers feel they would be indifferent to most aspect of reforms.
PMK is expected to be part of the Vajpayee ministry. MDMK's Vaiko has demonstrated his loyalty to BJP and especially Vajpayee. He was the first from Tamil Nadu to have faxed the letter of support to the President even while AIADMK leader J Jayalalitha was holding BJP to ransom last year. Unlike last year, his party may take part in the government this time around. No portfolio demand is expected from the party.
TRINAMOOL CONGRESS
The party's economic agenda makes no mention of the controversial patent bill or the new insurance policy. It's concerns and policies are localised to and focussed on West Bengal.
It talks of new industries, better infrastructure, more employment and revival of sick units in West Bengal. However, the party does not give any hint regarding its action plan, that is, how it proposes to achieve its goals, though it promises a "special package" for the state.
The party is strictly against privatisation and retrenchment at coal mines but supports their modernisation.
In its relations with BJP, the real bone of contention is the hiked proces of diesel. Mamata has demanded a roll back. The Centre cannot oblige. The partnership might have many such irritants. The real test will be what the Centre is able to promise and give West Bengal.
BIJU JANATA DAL
Having raised its tally to 10 from nine last year, the Biju Janata Dal is preparing to seek a greater representation at the Centre. Party president Naveen Patnaik has already voiced this ambitions. Reiterating the same, he said in Bhubaneswar on Thursday that "we expect one or two more seats in the Union Cabinet". Though he is not committal on what portfolios BJD might demand, there are indications that railways might be sought.
Like many other regional leaders, Patnaik, too has promised his state a "special package". The deal includes a special state status for Orissa. The NDA coalition government will find it difficult to raise Orissa to such status as the state's economy is not unique in its backwardness; there are many qualifiers.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.