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Russia lowers grain harvest forecast, seeks US aid 

Aleksandras Budrys  
Moscow, Oct 7: Russia has lowered its 1999 grain harvest forecast to 57-58 million tonnes and asked the United States for aid to make up an expected shortfall, the deputy prime minister in charge of agriculture said on Wednesday.

Deputy prime minister Vladimir Shcherbak announced the revised forecast, down from a previous official forecast of 60-62 million tonnes, at a news conference, and said Russia aimed to make up an eight million tonne deficit of mainly feed grain with US donations of more than five million tonnes.

``All categories of farms will collect 57-58 million tonnes of grain,'' Shcherbak said.

He attributed the lower than expected harvest to a lack of fuel and agricultural machinery, as well as to the weather - 1999 like 1998 saw unusual cold snaps in May followed by very hot weather in June and July.

In 1998, Russia had a disastrous grain harvest of 47.8 million tonnes, the lowest in decades.

But some experts believe this year's harvest could even be lower than the official estimate -- 55 million tonnes.

Shcherbak said Russia would need a total of 74 million tonnes of both feed and food grain this year, but planned to cover part of the 16 million tonnes difference by purchases on a commercial basis.

He said the government did not plan to centralise purchases of grain and that it would be up to Russian regions to buy the necessary quantities.

He named Kazakhstan, from which Russia traditionally buys around 2.5 million tonnes of grain per year, and Ukraine as possible sources.

``We will have a deficit of eight million tonnes, which will be mainly feed grain... We will have enough food grain, although this year we will not have carry-over stocks or they will be very low,'' Shcherbak said.

He confirmed that Russia had asked the United States this year for additional food aid of over five million tonnes, consisting mainly of feed grain, but said details of the request had not yet been finalised.

``We are working on the possibility of supplies from the United States of over five million tonnes of grain, basically feed grain...in the form of donations. Negotiations still continue,'' he said.

In September a US government source in Moscow told Reuters that Russia had requested one million tonnes of food wheat, 1.5 million tonnes of feed wheat, 1.5 million tonnes of maize and a million tonnes of soybeans and soymeal.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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