The reversal has been stunning. Prices have been straining at a leash. At $1,544 per tonne, producers can sleep easy.

While it may be too early to sound the bugles, the Indian markets have responded favourably. Enthusiasm and hope pushed both Nalco and Hindalco into the "Strong Buy" bracket. With good reason.

In the Western world, the merged entities are trying their damndest best to maintain prices at remunerative levels. If that means a cartel, it may translate into "so be it".

For Indians, high prices coupled with easy access to bauxite and stunningly low production costs, the opportunity to shore up realisations is great.

Then there is alumina. With prices playing footsie at the $200 mark, India isn't complaining. For Nalco, already the lowest cost producer in the world, the outcome is obvious.

Factor in an economic revival, renewed state spending and high chances of political stability. Which is why it makes eminent sense to include stocks of primary and integrated aluminium producers in any self-respecting portfolio.

Downstream producers, however, are beginning to feel the heat. Their end may be near. Once again, for a few very good reasons.

India remains among the last of the big markets. Even better, aluminium consumption is among the lowest anywhere in the world. With the right kind of marketing, even a marginal increase in offtake can make the difference between profits and obscene profits. That alone is reason enough for global players with a better product mix to trek their way to Indian shores.

Add to this the fact that when it comes to downstream products, Indian companies are terribly inefficient. The costs are loaded against them and even a whiff of competition can break a good many backs.