While kharif rice output has remained stable above 71 million tonnes since 1996-97, kharif coarse grain output, grown largely in rain-scarce regions, has fluctuated between 27.1 million tonnes (1996-97) and 22.3 million tonnes. In terms of food security this does not pose a problem: the country grows and stocks enough wheat to make good the shortfall in coarse cereals output. But uneven growth in production underpins the farm income inequality between regions. The problem is left unaddressed by a policy which focuses principally on rice and wheat. In foodgrain production, the share of kharif was about equal to that of rabi last year; in 1990-91, kharif accounted for over 56 per cent of the total. Rabi's share seems slated to increase thanks to irrigation, including tubewell irrigation following the rains.

Judging by official data, the burden of this year's inconsistent monsoon has been borne by kharif oilseeds crops: the estimated output isdown to 12 million tonnes from 16.5 million tonnes last year; groundnut has suffered a setback to 4.5 million tonnes from 7.1 million tonnes and soyabean to 5.9 million tonnes from 6.9 million tonnes. The trouble is that unlike foodgrain estimates, which are reasonably good, estimates of oilseed output tend to be controversial. The officially forecast output could be an under-estimate for groundnut and an over-estimate for soyabean. But you never can tell since the trade and the processing industry have a large stake in oilseed speculation; even two months ago there was a shrill lament over excessive edible oil imports. Among cash crops, sugar cane will reap a bumper harvest his year. This may or may not soften (the highly politicised) sugar prices.