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Gold on a comeback trail, scales $271 per ounce despite BoE sales 

SANJIV AROLE  
Mumbai, Sept 26: Doomsday predictions are back in vogue. September 9, 1999 was supposed to witness damage to all computers due to a glitch in Cobol software programming. It was said to be the sneak preview of the real thing to be unleashed by the Y2K bug on December 31, 1999. Then, only last month, when all the planets were aligned in a straight line, astrologers and soothsayers predicted the end of the world.

Likewise, after the disastrous first auction of 25 tonnes of gold by the BoE in July, when gold fell to 20-year low near the $251 per ounce mark, it was anticipated that the yellow metal would fall even further after the second lot of auctions on September 21.

But the precious metal even surprised everybody, as it first touched $258.85 per ounce, then $263.40 per ounce and even scaled $266 per ounce in late New York trading on Thursday. Ultimately, on Friday it defied all odds as it even crossed the $271 per ounce mark, albeit briefly. And even though the producers have come out selling, the yellowmetal is holding on to its gains.

So much so that dealers and even analysts now expect gold to touch $275-278 per ounce if it manages to top the 200-day moving average near the $272 per ounce. Having crossed the crucial $267-268 per ounce resistance barrier, has gold at last turned the corner?

For once, the yellow metal appears to have taken advantage of a plethora of factors skewed in its favour. First was the compromise on the IMF Gold sale which boosted gold's sagging morale; then came the news that the Swiss gold would be sold only in the year 2001; in between was the most important development, whereby the BoE auction was oversubscribed by eight times aggregating 8,16,000 million ounces of gold with the second largest gold producer successfully bidding for 12.5 per cent of the lot.

Moreover, there was Anglo-gold which had also bid unsuccessfully for a portion of the auction. Apart from all this was the fall of the Dow by over 500 points during the current week, the rising crude oil prices above $24per barrel and the weak dollar against the yen.

Analysts opine that the present rally is fuelled by short covering by one prominent seller, probably a gold miner. But the underlying fact is that funds are still buying along with a few trading houses. What has surprised all is that despite a couple of selling bouts by Australian producers, gold continues to surge ahead.

However, there is still a sneaking fear that what the funds propose, producers will dispose. But for the moment it is the day of the funds.The precious metals basket benefited from the yellow metal's spectacular rise and even silver moved on from near US cents 509.75 per ounce on September 17 to US cents 526 per ounce on September 23.

Friday saw gold at $270 per ounce and silver at US cents 525 per ounce (gold and silver, London, Friday afternoon fixed).

The domestic bullion markets reflected the gold's changing fortunes. However, the prices also had to factor in the fall of the rupee to its lowest ever against the US dollar. With theinauspicious fortnight commencing from Sunday, demand for both the precious metals could be adversely affected, particularly as prices have also risen in the international markets.

Elsewhere, standard gold rose from Rs 4,050 per 10 gms to Rs 4,230 per 10 gms. Silver .999 improved its position from Rs 7,985 per kg to Rs 8,175 per kg before closing at Rs 8,115 per kg (gold and silver, Mumbai, Saturday evening prices).

Meanwhile, even as gold basks in its moment of glory, gold buffs want more. For them, the icing on the cake would be if BoE were to drop further gold auctions.

Finally, has George Soros or his legion of followers returned to gold a la 1993? Maybe. Maybe not!

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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