As many as 1,55,726 Keralites left the state last year seeking employment abroad, mostly in the Gulf. The corresponding figure for 1995 was 1,28,474, and for 1993, it was 1,13,550. While the US and Malaysia are also possible job destinations for Keralites, the vast majority still preferred to probe the Gulf market, states a paper submitted by eminent demographers K C Zachariah, E T Mathew and S lrudaya Rajan at the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram.

However, there is cause for concern for the state in that even as the rate of migration has come down significantly, there has been an incessant flow in the reverse direction. Changes in local rules as well as the economic scenario in the Gulf countries have resulted in the return of thousands of emigrant workers, affecting Kerala'shitherto high level of social development.

Migration had contributed more to poverty alleviation in Kerala than any other factor, including agrarian reforms, labour union activities and social welfare legislation, says the paper, entitled Migration in Kerala State, India: Dimensions, Determinants and Consequences.

Whereas just 17,688 people returned home permanently in 1988, the number returning in 1998 had swelled to 1,26,867. The total number of people who have returned to the state from abroad has touched 7,39,000. This figure is likely to go up in the coming years and is expected to cross the 1.75 million mark by 2002.

The data used for the study was based on a survey conducted in 10,000 households selected from 200 village and municipal wards in the 14 districts of the state during March-December 1998. The report showed that more than 3,00,000 returnees were from Saudi Arabia, 84,000 from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and 77,000 from Muscat, Oman. Just 1,222 came back from the US.

The study alsoreveals that almost 1.5 million Keralites now live outside India. Of them, almost 38 per cent (5,19,000) were in Saudi Arabia. Dubai had 1,53,000 Keralites, Abu Dhabi 1,33,000, Sharjah 1,19,000, Muscat 1,09,000, Bahrain 77,000, Kuwait 69,000 and Qatar 64,000. The US, with 30,000, was the most favoured destination outside of the Gulf.

These emigrant workers had sent home as much as Rs 35.30 billion in 1998. This figure is more than two and a half times the budget support given to Kerala by the Central government. Also, another Rs 5 billion worth of things were imported by the households during the year. In other words, the total money that came into the state was 10.7 per cent of Kerala's gross domestic product (GDP). But banking statistics, which also include institutional remittances, reveal that non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits to the tune of Rs 127.35 billion had come into various banks in the state in 1998 and these deposits have been growing at the rate of 25 per cent every year.

The study alsopoints out that 51 per cent of the emigrants were Muslim and they also topped the list in terms of remittance. Out of the total remittances from abroad, they accounted for Rs 16.7 billion. Next came Hindus with Rs 7.14 billion, followed by Christians with Rs 6.9 billion.

Another interesting observation made in the study is that Muslim-dominated Malappuram district, which also has the lowest literacy rate in the state, had the largest number of emigrants with 2,70,000, who contributed Rs 6.3 billion by way of remittances.

Regarding the social impact of migration, it was pointed out that migration has changed the family composition in many households. Single-member households have increased by 33 per cent, two-member homes by 43 per cent and three-member households by 25 per cent. Due to migration, the number of married women living separately from their spouses has gone up. In the 10,000 households where the survey was done, it was found that married men were fewer than married women by 12 per cent. On thecurrent status of the returnees, the study pointed out that 38 per cent were self-employed and 26 per cent were earning their livelihood by working as labourers in the non-agricultural sectors. The remainder had white-collar jobs.