Backed by the Congress, Lok Dal chief Ajit Singh, who is contesting for his political survival, is working hard to regain the traditional family Baghpat seat. There are expectations of a division of Muslim votes between BSP and Samajwadi Party in this highly communally sensitive constituency.

Union minister of state for agriculture Sompal Shastri of the BJP is banking upon the around 450,000 urban votes, which hold the key in this constituency neighbouring east Delhi, however, Jats, Muslims and Gujjars comprise around 60 per cent of the 1.4 million electorate. Shastri won the last election here by a margin of around 44,000 votes.

SP candidate Mirajuddin and BSP nominee Tekchand--aGujjar by caste--command influence in their communities. There are 16 other candidates in the fray.More than 10,000 policemen and paramilitary personnel have been deployed to prevent any poll violence. Repoll was ordered in 158 booths during the last elections. The police also plans to seal the entire 65 km border with Haryana on poll eve and patrol the Yamuna on motorboats to prevent any disruption of the electoral process.

Rural voters of the constituency have not yet made up their mind. Shastri evoked both criticism and praise. A large number said that he had taken up a number of developmental projects in the area. Many were disinterested in the elections which they said would only lead to higher inflation.

They also voiced a sense of hurt at the large number of security personnel sent by the state administration.

The campaign is dominated by local issues with frequent reminders by Shastri about the work done by him in the past 17 months.

Ajit Singh, the Lok Dal chief, points out that he was theonly heir of Chaudhary Charan Singh who was the only Kisan and Jat leader of this area from 1950's to 1980's.

Sompal Shastri also points out the Congress role in the fall of the Vajpayee government in last April. He also raises the issue of Kargil as well as `videshi' and seeks votes in the name of Atal Bihar Vajpayee, whom he describes as the best Prime Minister of the country.

Sompal claimed that many new groups had recently extended support to him. He is expected to do better in the Chhaprolli assembly segment where he trailed by more than 42000 votes in the last election and increase the margin in Khekra, where he led by more than 62000 votes.

Ajit Singh is mainly banking on Jats and Muslim votes. He hopes to draw a sizable chunk of Muslim votes from the kitty of the SP candidate who secured 120,000 votes in the last election.

Observers said that while the presence of BSP candidate is helping Ajit Singh, SP is helping the BJP candidate.