The withdrawal process was delayed by about two weeks from the normal date of September 1 due to the revival of the monsoon system in the past weeks.

Though the revival of monsoon helped the earlier scanty rainfall areas of Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu regions in Gujarat, the entire state still remained deficient in rainfall for the monsoon season. West Rajasthan and Kerala will be classed as marginally deficient rainfall area in the season. Other rain deficient areas till date in the season are Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry can, of course, hope to make up their losses if the ensuing north-east monsoon is a success.

Rest of the country had normal rains till date in the season with the exception of Bihar which had excess rainfall. This large area coverage for normal rainfall categorises this current monsoon as `good'with less amount of damages due to natural calamities.

GUJARAT SITUATION: The most rain deficient areas of the state are Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu. This region till date has received only 212 mm of rains as compared to 537 mm rainfall in the corresponding period in the previous year. The normal rainfall which this region should receive is 514 mm. This indicates that this region has received 59 per cent less rains than the normal in the current season, whereas in the previous year this region received rainfall above than its normal level. The only hope of possible rainfall in this region in the near future hinges on the possible occurrances of western disturbances.

But luck also did not favour this region last year also. In the previous year there was heavy damage to human lives, crops and property due to cyclone and heavy rains in the latter half of the monsoon. This year it is affected by deficient rains.

As far as the remaining other parts of the state is concerned, this region received 761 mmrainfall in the current period as against 1079 mm rainfall in the corresponding period of the previous year. The noormal rainfall this region should get is 997 mm. This indicates that this region had marginally deficient rainfall of 24 per cent below the normal in the current period.

WEATHER FORECAST: Rainfall activity is likely to be above normal in Orissa, east MP and Bihar plateau in this week. Normal rainfall is expected in Bihar plains, east UP, west MP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Sikkim and northeastern states whilst in rest of the country the rainfall is likely to be subdued.

PREVIOUS WEEK'S REVIEW: The well marked low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal moved inland on September 11 and lay over northeast MP and adjoining areas on September 13. The system mooved further westwards and lay over central parts of MP on September 14 and persisted over the same area on September 15.

During the week ended September 15, southwest monsoon was vigorous in west MP and Rayalaseema andactive in Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, east MP, Vidarbha, Telangana, Konkan, Goa and hills of west UP. Rainfall also occurred at most places in plains of UP, sub-Himalayan WEst Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, central Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka and at many places in Gujarat region, Bihar plateau, Assam, Meghalaya, coastal Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka. Rains occurred at a few places in Haryana, east Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at isolated places in rest regions of the country. However, during the week, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, west Rajasthan, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep received scanty rainfall whilst Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar plateau, Bihar plains, east Rajasthan, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka received deficient rainfall.

SEASON'S ESTIMATE: During theperiod June 1 to September 15, 29 out of 35 meteorological subdivisions covering 83 per cent area and 68 per cent of districts of the country received normal to excess rainfall.