The test case for Yadav this time is his own parliamentary constituency, Madhepura, where he has to take on the might of the Janata Dal (U), represented by friend-turned-foe Sharad Yadav. Going by electoral arithmetic alone, one may tend to conclude that Laloo Yadav stands little chance this time. The JD(U) is in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party.

His margin of victory of 52,000 votes over Sharad Yadav in last year's election is clearly overrun by the Samta Party candidate in that contest, NK Singh, who got 65,000 votes. This time the Samta Party and Janata Dal have joined up to form the JD(U), which would mean a consolidation of anti-Laloo Yadav votes.

Apart from arithmetic there are other problemsconfronting Laloo Yadav in his home terrain. Many prominent leaders of the Yadav and Muslim communities have deserted him this time for various reasons, ranging from inability to keep promises to refusal to give nominations in the elections. Till date over a dozen well-known Yadav community leaders have deserted the RJD and, worse, have put themselves up as candidates, basically with the intention of weaning away community votes and defeating the official RJD candidates.

The RJD's support base is northern and central Bihar, while the tribal-dominated south is almost fully in the hands of the BJP, with small pockets remaining strongholds of the Congress. Last year the RJD won in 17 of the 54 constituencies in the state. Ramanand Yadav, a close associate of Laloo Yadav, is contesting as an Independent candidate against official RJD candidate Ram Kripal Yadav in Patna. Nagendra Rai, a close relative of the RJD president, is also contesting as independent from Patna.

In almost every northern Biharconstituency, the RJD has to face the problem of rebel candidates. Ram Japit Rai, who was till now district president of the RJD, is contesting against the official party candidate in Samastipur, Asok Singh. In Banka, official RJD candidate Shakuni Chaudhuri is spending sleepless nights after Giridhari Yadava, a former Member of Parliament, jumped into the fray as an independent candidate. In spite of open rebellion in its ranks, the RJD is putting up a brave face saying its alliance with the Congress will counter the trend.

"While the backward, minority and dalit communities will extend overwhelming support to the RJD, we will benefit from the traditional votes of the Congress," party spokesman Ram Kripal Yadav said. Another reason for hope, according to RJD leaders, is that with Ram Vilas Paswan and Sharad Yadav having joined the alliance led by the BJP, the Dalit and Yadav votes that they had will also come to the RJD. "The Dalits will never vote for the BJP alliance," an RJD leader said.

--IndiaAbroad News Service