"Many farmers in Punjab have planted rice instead of cotton," he said in an interview.

"In the last few years, the cotton farmers suffered huge losses. Naturally, they will not go on planting the same crop."

Many cotton farmers committed suicide over the past two years after their earnings were badly hit following crop failure due to leaf-curl virus and unseasonal rains.

Ministry officials say the area under cotton cultivation has fallen to 7.85 million hectares from 8.59 million in the last season. "If the productivity remains the same, production will comedown," Barua said.

India produced 16.3 million cotton bales in 1998/99. Trade officials also expect output to dip to 15.5 million bales because of dry weather in some parts of the country. One baleweighs 170 kg.

Increase in rice output

An increase in rice sowing area due to sufficient rainfall could lift the winter harvest of the 1999/2000 (July-June) crop season, Barua said.

"Rice is doing well. The area has gone up. Crop conditions so far is looking good," thw official said.

India harvests two rice crops in one agricultural season, getting the bulk of its output from the winter crop which is sown during the June-July monsoon rains and harvested from October.

India harvested a winter rice crop of 71.84 million tonnes in 1998/99. The country produced 84.74 million tonnes of rice in the whole of 1998/99 compared with 82.30 million the previous year.

Ministry officials say the area under rice sowing for the winter crop had risen to 36.47 million hectares from 35 million hectares in the last winter season.

"There have been no pest attacks or diseases as far as the rice crop is concerned," Barua said. "Rainfall distribution in the rice-growing areas have been good. Intermittent spellsof sunshine have also been good for the crop."

Soyabean, groundnut crops to fall

Winter soyabean and groundnut crops are expected to fall because of a sharp decrease in sowing area due to a lack of monsoon rains," the agriculture secretary said.

"Area coverage under soyabean has gone down in Madhya Pradesh due to lack of rainfall," the most senior civil servant in the ministry said.

The central state of Madhya Pradesh accounts for about 80 per cent of the country's soyabean output.

Government and industry officials say the sowing area for the winter soyabean crop of 1999/2000 (November-October) fell to 5.55 million hectares from 6.35 million hectares in the last season.

Trade officials expect the soyabean crop could drop by 15 to 20 per cent from last year's 6.2 million tonnes.

Barua said groundnut sowing had also been badly affected in the Saurashtra and Kutch regions of the western state of Gujarat and in the Rayalseema area of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

"Persistent lack ofrains in these regions could have an adverse affect on the crop," Barua said. "When the area has gone down, unless the crop yields are really good, that (dip in output) is a normal conclusion."

Gujarat accounts for about 35 per cent of the country's groundnut output.

Barua declined to give a figure for the likely decrease in the groundnut crop.

According to trade estimates, output is expected to fall to 3.5 million tonnes from 5.48 million in the previous season.