The country goes to polls in about two weeks from now. The political parties are trying every trick in the book to woo the masses andconvince them to cast their vote on their favour. The prospects of elections are certainly causing nervousness for the market. But the chances of BJP coming to power are slightly on the higher side. Whatever happens, the market will certainly be on tenterhooks and it will be assimilating newer information very quickly. Till the time the election fever persists the market is likely to swing wildly.

Last week we were of the opinion that the level of 4810 points is going to be very crucial. Till the time this level stays we are sure likely to see a rally. But if this level failed to hold, the market could see a decline to around 4688 points. The week opened on a higher note. But by the end of Monday's trading the market saw a major sell off. But it was only on Thursday that the level of 4810 points was broken and the index continued its decline to make a low of 4698 points.

Monday's trading resulted in appearance of a long black candle, which was the `bearish counter attack line'. What followed was four daysof consecutive lower closes. On the weekly charts the index has formed a bearish engulfing pattern. This is a bearish pattern and it can create problems for the index. Now notice in the chart that there is a rising trendline and there is a strong support at around 4688 points. Now on Friday the index formed a small-bodied candle. This could mean that the market is slightly indecisive. Also the small-bodied candle took place at the level of around 4688 points, further justifying the importance of this level. We now have a situation where the index is just above its support of 4688 points and at this point one sees appearance of a small-bodied candle. Under the circumstances the best that one can do is wait and watch movements of the market at 4688 points. This level is a make it or break it point. If the market holds at the level of 4688 points, we could see a rally to around 4810 points but if the index breaks below the level of 4688 points then we could see a decline to around 4470 points.

The indicatorsare slightly on the bearish side. The daily MACD (Moving Averages Convergence Divergence) is in a sell mode. The 14-day RSI is near to its equilibrium level. Traders may keep a close watch on the level of 4688 points. If this level breaks the index could decline to lower levels.

CESC LTD

After the initial spurt in June and July, the price of the stock was sideways for several weeks. The price has now shown a breakout above the level of Rs 51, a strong resistance level. The stock price may rally to around Rs 75 in the medium term. One may consider buying this stock at current levels for a decent appreciation in price. Keep a stop loss below Rs 45.

Timex Watches

The price of this stock has shown a breakout above the resistance level of Rs 31. The breakout from the price has been on significantly higher volumes. The weekly MACD is also in a buy mode. The price of the stock does show a potential to rally to around Rs 45. One may buy the stock with a stop below Rs 29.

TitanIndustries

The price action for the week formed a long hammer a bullish candlestick pattern. The price may rally to around Rs 110 once it shows a breakout above Rs 94.5. If the price still manages to go higher and show a breakout above Rs 110, the price may rally to around Rs 140 in the medium term. One may buy the stock at current levels with a stop loss below Rs 88.

TRADER'S CHOICE

Century Textiles

The price of the stock may rally to around Rs 95 in the short term. Traders may consider buying this stock for a target of around Rs 95 in the short term. Keep a stop loss below Rs 82.

Bhel

Traders may consider buying this stock on break above Rs 320 for a targeted price of Rs 350. The price move may be quick. One may buy with a stop loss below Rs 314.

The writer's E mail address is Shahmani1@yahoo.com