Though electioneering here is yet to gather momentum, one can make readings from the first indications available: Sonia Gandhi is placed comfortably to clinch the battle. However, it is not going to be a bed of roses for her as the BJP candidate Sushma Swaraj is slowly catching up in terms of popularity ratings.

Under the Election Commission's keen eyes, campaigning has been a low-key affair. There are hardly any banners, posters or hand-bills in Bellary. The ban on meetings after 10 pm in the night has also come as a dampener to the parties. Party workers are, however, seen to be conducting door-to-door campaigns. As in most other constituencies in the state, the electorate here are clearly split on caste lines with Lingayats, Muslims and Kurubas being the top three. The dominant community is of Lingayats to which belong Janata Dal (U)leader Ramakrishna Hegde and state chief minister JH Patel.

The Lingayats in Bellary have traditionally been Congress voters. But in the past, JD leaders like Hegde have been able to make significant gains and it is expected that the biggest gains for BJP could come from this pocket.

Muslims, traditional Congress voters, are not expected make a shift while the Kuruba votes could be split due to the presence of JD (S). The loyalties of other communities are divided and their inclination unclear. The three main contestants have also different planks to woo voters. While the main plank of the Congress is stability and strong government, BJP quotes neglect of Bellary by Congress.