``Cotton crop production next season will be 162-165 lakh bales despite decline in area under cultivation in northern India,'' Indian Cotton Mills' Federation (ICMF) secretary general, MP Gajaria, told PTI.

The decline in acreage in northern India, comprising Punjab, Haryana and Ganganagar tracts in Rajasthan, would not be affecting the production as it would be made good by increased output in Gujarat and Maharashtra, he said.

Crop production in other parts such as Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka was likely to be the same as this season.

Cotton production this season had declined to 162.50 lakh bales after touching a record 170 lakh bales last season. Initially, crop production was expected to be 170 lakh bales but unseasonal rains hit the crop in parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat.

``Besides, increase in per hectare yield would also ensure that crop production does not decline this year,'' Gajaria said.

Since the extension officers of the ministry took a lesser yield into account, there was a difference in the figures put out by the industry and agriculture ministry, Gajaria said.

``Also, they take into credit only three pickings, whereas there could be up to five pickings,'' he said.

Gujarat, which has emerged as the top cotton-producing state in the country during the last couple of years, was expected to maintain the trend next season also.

However, a cause for concern was the constant decline in cotton production in North India during the last couple of years.

North India, which made up nearly 30 per cent of the country's cotton output until 1996-97 season, had been witnessing a steep decline in production.

Even last season, when production touched a record high, its output was far less.

This had been due to constant pest attacks on the crop, unseasonal rains in October and the resultant bollworm.

``There has been a shift from cotton crop this year in the northern states due to growers bad experience in the last 4-5 years,'' industry sources said.

These growers had now shifted to sugarcane, bajra and moong.

In Rajasthan, the delay in release of water in the Indira Gandhi Canal had resulted in 10-12 per cent lower crop.

``Due to the late supply of water, production of Bengal desi cotton could be 30-35 per cent lower this season,'' the sources said.

In all, production in North India could be 10-12 per cent less than this season's output of 25 lakh bales, they added.