The situation is expected to be further aggravated when the new crop, which according to the present indications, is expected to be abundant, starts moving in from the next month. Already some arrivals of early crop in Maharashtra are on.

According to the textile ministry the CAB is expected to advise the government on production, consumption and marketing of cotton. It might, therefore, be interesting to watch what recommendations, if any, it offers to the government for the disposal of cotton stocks piling up in the country.If, however, one goes by the past experience one cannot rule out the possibility of either the supply position being deflated, or the offtake estimates being inflated to keep down the magnitude of the closing stockfor the current season which will be ending on September 30, 1999.

Already, the estimate of non-mill cotton consumption is kept as high as possible, though that sector's fibre requirements have never been objectively and convincingly determined by anyone so far. The method followed in arriving at it moreover seems fallacious.

Instead of undertaking any objective exercise to ascertain how many such non-mill consumers are there in the country and to what extent they consume fresh cotton, old cotton, cotton-waste or other substitutes, the method employed for the purpose makes certain assumptions.

It is presumed under this method that when the overall availability of cotton (after taking into consideration the opening stock, current crop, imports and exports) is established, the balance left after deducting from the same, the estimate of cotton consumption by the spinning sector, can be attributed to the non-mill sector.

This method is apparently based on questionable assumptions that the estimates ofavailability and offtake by the spinning sector are dependable. If, however, one goes by the past experience, one may find them to be far from reliable. This is what makes this method fallacious and incredible.For instance, the CAB had itself initially estimated the opening stock of the 1996-97 season at 26.02 lakh bales. The same was subsequently brought down by it to 23.23 lakh bales, but raised again to 30.93 lakh bales and later to 39.16 lakh bales.

Such wide variations are bound to vitiate reliability of the overall supply estimates. Similarly in the current season, the import was initially estimated at just two lakh bales. This was later raised to 6.5 lakh bales and that may go up to 10 lakh bales or more when the CAB meets again.Thus the CAB's projections of non-mill consumption cannot carry conviction when they are based on undependable premises. Anyway, such doubtful methods can be no substitute for an objective exercise to determine cotton consumption by the non-mill sector.

It might beinteresting to note in this context that the Ahmedabad Textile Industry Research Association (ATIRA) had in one of its reports referred to the existence and movement of fully pressed ``Ram...Ram'' bales of cotton in the country. The extent of this phenomenon is not known. However such bales may have to be added to the supply for a clearer picture.

It is a known fact that the spinning sector generates a lot of cotton-waste. Some of it may be recycled, but the balance goes out for other uses. However no data is available in regard to generation of cotton-waste and its sector-wise consumption.

The use of loose cotton has now been officially admitted, but official estimates in this regard are not free form doubt. If a credible assessment of such consumption is to be made, there should be strict monitoring of both the ginning and pressing activities in the country.

Once that is done, a more reliable estimate of fibre consumption in loose form may become available and such consumption may perhaps be foundexceeding 10 lakh bales.

If all these factors are taken into consideration the total pile- up of cotton at the end of the season, might far exceed the CAB's earlier estimate of 40 lakh bales. One may expect the CAB to improve its image, through a more objective and rational approach to the tasks before it.